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NVDA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 22, 1999 🔗 www.nvidia.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.56T 👥 Employees: 36,000
Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units. Traditionally, GPUs were used to enhance the experience on computing platforms, most notably in gaming applications on PCs. GPU use cases have since emerged as important semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to run large language models. Nvidia not only offers AI GPUs, but also a software platform, Cuda, used for AI model development and training. Nvidia is also expanding its data center networking solutions, helping to tie GPUs together to handle complex workloads.
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
55.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.06%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.08%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.0%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -0.47%
Best: +3.11%
Worst: -3.12%
Trades: 416/339

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.2%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.88%
Avg Loser: -0.89%
Best: +6.10%
Worst: -4.39%
Trades: 380/376

30MIN

Win Rate: 54.2%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +7.35%
Worst: -4.78%
Trades: 410/345

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.41%
Best: +7.99%
Worst: -6.00%
Trades: 388/368

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 31.6%
Avg Gain: -36.79%
Avg Winner: +2.16%
Avg Loser: -54.81%
Best: +13.22%
Worst: -90.82%
Trades: 240/519

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.08%
Best MFE: +13.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 149 min

On average, NVDA alerts reach +2.08% profit potential within 149 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.81%
Worst MAE: -6.24%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.81%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.58:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.58x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, NVDA typically reaches +2.08% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 50.5%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +2.89%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How NVDA compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NVDA: +0.06% Sector: -0.04% +0.11%
EOD Gain
NVDA: -36.65% Sector: +13404.08% -13440.73%
Avg MFE
NVDA: +2.08% Sector: +2.71% -0.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVDA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:20 $136.45 +0.10% -0.01% +0.18% +1.19% +1.76% +2.05% -0.70% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:27 $131.58 +1.12% +0.75% +1.82% +2.26% +2.82% +3.74% -0.31% -0.02% WIN
2025-02-12 09:29:43 $130.01 +0.62% +1.52% +1.26% +1.03% +0.87% +1.72% -0.72% +0.01% WIN
2025-02-11 09:27:27 $132.3 +0.14% +1.15% +1.16% +1.05% +0.38% +1.65% -0.22% +0.21% WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:02 $130.56 +0.71% +2.25% +2.60% +2.95% +2.31% +3.40% -0.47% -0.36% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:46 $128.97 +0.55% +0.88% +0.58% +0.25% +0.67% +1.09% -0.13% +0.19% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:43 $127.23 -0.37% -1.49% -0.70% -0.82% +1.14% +1.21% -1.59% +0.15% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:44 $121.52 +0.54% -0.26% +0.30% +0.48% +2.72% +2.86% -0.63% +0.20% WIN
2025-02-04 09:28:38 $116.94 +0.75% +1.33% +2.07% +2.56% +1.46% +3.64% -0.21% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:36 $114.5 -0.21% -0.10% +0.00% +0.97% +1.89% +3.55% -1.30% +0.22% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:28:16 $123.91 -0.01% -0.02% +0.43% +1.83% -3.10% +3.18% -0.56% -0.10% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:25:55 $123.4 -0.07% -1.40% -0.92% -2.48% +1.01% +1.35% -4.29% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:28:17 $126.45 -0.49% -1.06% -0.56% -1.98% -2.17% +0.35% -0.20% +0.04% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:25:47 $122.57 -1.85% -4.39% -2.88% -0.88% +5.24% +5.29% -5.16% -0.62% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:53 $125.01 +0.81% +0.53% +1.62% -0.78% -5.27% +2.71% -1.10% -0.17% WIN
2025-01-24 09:26:37 $148.75 -0.49% -0.99% -0.66% -1.66% -4.12% +0.15% -0.38% -0.26% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:00 $144.62 -0.38% +0.25% +0.31% +0.27% +1.80% +1.82% -0.62% +0.30% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:25:33 $144.83 +0.50% +0.76% +1.64% +1.15% +1.55% +2.04% -0.80% -0.12% WIN
2025-01-21 09:25:26 $139.06 -0.03% -0.83% +0.05% -0.68% +1.27% +1.99% -1.42% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:47 $136.74 -0.30% +0.02% +0.26% +0.01% +0.71% +1.29% -0.93% -0.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 55.0% Baseline on NVDA

The 55.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NVDA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NVDA Strategy →

Why Analyze NVDA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVDA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVDA historically offers an average upside of +2.08% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVDA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.0%, NVDA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NVDA performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.06%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.