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MARA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

MARA Holdings, Inc. Common Stock FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 09, 2011 🔗 www.mara.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.97B 👥 Employees: 152
MARA Holdings Inc leverages digital asset compute to support the energy transformation. It secures the blockchain ledger and supports the energy transformation by converting clean, stranded, or underutilized energy into economic value. The company also offers technology solutions to optimize data center operations, including next-generation liquid immersion cooling and firmware for bitcoin miners. It is focused on computing for, acquiring, and holding digital assets as a long-term investment.
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
48.2%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.05%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+4.81%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +7.16%
Worst: -4.24%
Trades: 353/397

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.7%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.88%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +9.27%
Worst: -7.62%
Trades: 361/388

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +2.44%
Avg Loser: -2.37%
Best: +11.65%
Worst: -7.19%
Trades: 365/391

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +3.08%
Avg Loser: -2.80%
Best: +15.02%
Worst: -9.94%
Trades: 350/403

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.7%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +5.27%
Avg Loser: -4.48%
Best: +28.09%
Worst: -18.86%
Trades: 339/414

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.81%
Best MFE: +33.63%
Avg Time to MFE: 130 min

On average, MARA alerts reach +4.81% profit potential within 130 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.87%
Worst MAE: -9.36%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.57:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.57x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, MARA typically reaches +4.81% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 38.1%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +3.64%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How MARA compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MARA: -0.13% Sector: -0.22% +0.09%
EOD Gain
MARA: -0.10% Sector: +101.11% -101.21%
Avg MFE
MARA: +4.81% Sector: +5.23% -0.41%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MARA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:58 $16.98 +0.83% +1.80% +1.27% +0.27% -0.47% +1.88% -0.15% +0.06% WIN
2025-02-13 09:25:11 $16.28 -1.90% -1.87% -0.71% +0.95% +3.87% +4.12% -2.46% -0.68% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:26:44 $15.91 -0.69% +0.31% +1.35% +0.06% +2.07% +2.89% -1.45% -0.06% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:28:34 $16.62 -1.26% -0.54% +0.60% -0.09% -3.61% +1.14% -1.96% +0.12% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:27 $17.02 +0.15% -0.65% -1.12% -0.91% -1.53% +0.94% -1.59% +0.29% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:01 $17.32 +1.85% +0.98% +0.55% -1.27% -3.18% +3.12% -0.64% - WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:01 $17.19 +1.05% - -0.17% -0.12% -2.27% +2.07% +0.06% +0.35% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:07 $17.74 +0.60% -0.45% -1.24% -1.24% -4.00% +1.13% -0.23% +0.56% WIN
2025-02-04 09:27:44 $17.74 +1.07% +1.23% +0.34% +0.76% -0.51% +1.72% -1.69% -0.51% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:24 $16.87 +1.42% +2.05% +2.46% +3.97% +6.40% +8.48% -0.12% +0.30% WIN
2025-01-31 09:29:48 $19.18 - -2.03% -1.07% -0.38% -4.38% +1.20% -0.26% -0.10% -
2025-01-30 09:27:31 $18.7 +3.05% +3.21% +3.05% +1.63% +2.57% +4.71% -0.11% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-29 09:26:10 $18.32 -0.33% -0.66% -0.35% -0.22% +0.55% +2.95% -3.00% -0.22% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:28:08 $18.45 -1.92% -2.87% -0.32% +0.14% -1.03% +0.70% -3.22% +0.27% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:01 $18.91 -1.59% -1.32% +0.58% -1.03% -3.31% +1.96% -2.96% -0.40% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:49 $20.22 -1.38% -0.55% -0.17% +0.49% -1.14% +4.72% -1.93% - LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:21 $19.23 +1.27% +2.03% +3.12% +1.90% +3.74% +8.37% -0.88% -0.05% WIN
2025-01-22 09:25:43 $19.33 +1.09% -0.78% -0.47% -0.72% +1.86% +3.98% -2.07% -0.47% WIN
2025-01-21 09:27:04 $20.36 -1.28% -5.85% -5.60% -7.27% -3.93% +1.08% -1.52% -0.54% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:49 $19.2 +1.72% +1.35% +1.41% +3.26% +3.70% +9.27% -1.25% +0.13% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MARA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.2% win rate and -0.05% average gain, MARA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MARA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MARA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MARA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MARA historically offers an average upside of +4.81% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MARA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.2%, MARA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MARA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MARA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.05%). This suggests MARA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.