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$GOSS -2.79% — what the base rate says

$GOSS -2.79% — what the base rate says

$HOWL doubled today on news of a merger with Ambros Therapeutics and a $150M private placement.

Retail sees +104.5% and hears fireworks. The database sees a different reality: in 2,881 historical instances of gap-ups exceeding 30% on catalysts, the setup closes red 65% of the time with a median intraday loss of -6.79%.

History shows short-side setups win 64% of the time in this exact regime. The headline says expansion; the historical math says distribution.

What the data showed

  • $GOSS -2.79% Gossamer Bio, Inc. mcap $77M · float 226M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $LGCL -18.67% Lucas GC Limited · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $71M · float 64M shares
  • $INTC -2.30% Intel Corporation mcap $490.6B · float 4.0B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $NVDA -0.62% NVIDIA Corporation mcap $5269.5B · float 23.4B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $BTBT -2.82% Bit Digital, Inc. mcap $505M · float 348M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES
  • $CIFR -8.95% Cipher Digital Inc. mcap $6.6B · float 313M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES

Check the historical base rates for aggressive catalyst gap-ups on FILTRIX.net before taking weekend risk. Discipline > FOMO.

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