$HOWL doubled today on news of a merger with Ambros Therapeutics and a $150M private placement.
Retail sees +104.5% and hears fireworks. The database sees a different reality: in 2,881 historical instances of gap-ups exceeding 30% on catalysts, the setup closes red 65% of the time with a median intraday loss of -6.79%.
History shows short-side setups win 64% of the time in this exact regime. The headline says expansion; the historical math says distribution.