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NVO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 261 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Novo-Nordisk A/S
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 30, 1981 🔗 www.novonordisk.com
💰 Market Cap: $284.29B 👥 Employees: 78,554
With roughly one-third of the global branded diabetes treatment market, Novo Nordisk is the leading provider of diabetes care products in the world. Based in Denmark, the company manufactures and markets a variety of human and modern insulins, injectable diabetes treatments such as GLP-1 therapy, oral antidiabetic agents, and obesity treatments. Novo also has a biopharmaceutical segment (contributing less than 10% of revenue) that specializes in protein therapies for hemophilia and other disorders.
📊
261
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.00%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.24%
Avg Loser: -0.27%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 137/120

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.37%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +1.73%
Worst: -2.39%
Trades: 133/126

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.8%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.46%
Best: +2.08%
Worst: -2.66%
Trades: 129/130

60MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.67%
Best: +2.70%
Worst: -3.64%
Trades: 137/122

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: -5.91%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -11.59%
Best: +4.21%
Worst: -51.07%
Trades: 118/143

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.01%
Best MFE: +4.82%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, NVO alerts reach +1.01% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.38%
Worst MAE: -1.97%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.62:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.62x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 261 alerts, NVO typically reaches +1.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 261
Gap Up % 50.2%
Avg Gap +0.01%
Best Gap +0.59%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:30 $79.03 -0.33% -0.76% -0.28% -0.57% -1.47% +0.05% -0.78% -0.57% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:27:59 $79.34 +0.13% +0.30% +0.35% +0.74% -0.64% +1.01% -0.07% +0.25% WIN
2025-02-12 09:27:28 $80.94 +0.07% -0.43% +0.30% +0.35% +1.05% +1.75% -0.51% +0.10% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:22 $85.79 -0.15% -0.30% -0.15% -0.66% -2.19% +0.15% -0.28% -0.10% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:28:17 $88.49 -0.25% -0.24% -0.52% -1.10% -2.34% +0.32% - +0.23% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:26:14 $86.73 +0.51% +0.05% +0.38% +1.75% +0.51% +2.56% -0.07% -0.01% WIN
2025-02-05 09:26:49 $86.29 +0.59% -0.23% -0.21% +0.39% -0.65% +1.31% -0.10% +0.16% WIN
2025-02-04 09:29:37 $81.64 -0.09% -0.12% +1.00% +0.61% +1.20% +2.20% -0.45% -0.02% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:28:04 $82.11 +0.80% +1.24% +0.67% +1.08% +0.66% +1.55% -0.05% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-31 09:28:52 $84.79 +0.33% +0.22% +0.40% +0.55% -0.40% +0.77% -0.12% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-29 09:25:35 $85.64 -0.06% -0.50% -0.57% -0.68% -1.88% +0.04% -0.08% -0.02% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:27:56 $86.13 +0.73% +0.27% -0.52% -0.69% -1.09% +0.85% -0.15% -0.07% WIN
2025-01-27 09:25:50 $86.01 +0.40% +0.71% +0.65% +0.93% +1.74% +2.85% -0.78% -0.31% WIN
2025-01-24 09:27:34 $89.9 -1.27% -2.22% -2.66% -3.64% -2.15% +0.22% -0.22% +0.08% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:27 $81.44 -0.56% -0.49% -0.21% -1.17% -0.42% +0.34% -1.37% -0.14% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:27:17 $81.73 -0.27% -0.45% -0.55% -0.53% -1.42% +0.09% -0.65% - LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:21 $79.65 -0.23% +0.39% +0.35% +0.40% +1.73% +1.83% -0.41% +0.04% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:27:30 $79.54 +0.29% +0.47% +0.86% +1.01% -1.07% +1.68% +0.21% +0.50% WIN
2025-01-15 09:26:07 $83.28 -0.19% -0.07% +0.44% -0.06% -0.43% +0.64% -0.62% +0.10% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:59 $82.98 +0.49% -1.03% -1.57% -1.72% -2.17% +0.84% -0.16% -0.07% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NVO Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.9% win rate, NVO has +0.00% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making NVO profitable.

🔧 Fix NVO Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze NVO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVO historically offers an average upside of +1.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, NVO shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NVO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at +0.00%). This suggests NVO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.