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DVAX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-13 → 2024-11-21

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Dynavax Technologies Corporation PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 19, 2004 🔗 www.dynavax.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.76B 👥 Employees: 405
Dynavax Technologies Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The company focuses on leveraging the power of the body's innate and adaptive immune responses through toll-like receptor stimulation. Its current product candidates are being investigated for use in multiple cancer indications as a vaccine for the prevention of HEPLISAV-B (Hepatitis B Vaccine (Recombinant), Adjuvanted), operates in the business segment of discovery, development, and commercialization of novel vaccines. Its Toll-like Receptor Immune Modulation Platform technology plays a vital role in innate immunity and subsequent adaptive immunity. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from the sale of its CpG 1018 product and HEPLISAV-B.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
54.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.54%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.54%
Avg Winner: +1.66%
Avg Loser: -0.80%
Best: +4.89%
Worst: -1.37%
Trades: 6/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +4.60%
Worst: -2.85%
Trades: 6/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: +0.66%
Avg Winner: +2.94%
Avg Loser: -1.25%
Best: +5.98%
Worst: -3.29%
Trades: 5/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.82%
Avg Winner: +3.10%
Avg Loser: -1.91%
Best: +9.90%
Worst: -4.57%
Trades: 6/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: +0.54%
Avg Winner: +3.72%
Avg Loser: -2.11%
Best: +7.38%
Worst: -4.89%
Trades: 5/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.04%
Best MFE: +13.98%
Avg Time to MFE: 101 min

On average, DVAX alerts reach +3.04% profit potential within 101 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -1.52%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, DVAX typically reaches +3.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 36.4%
Avg Gap +0.18%
Best Gap +1.74%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How DVAX compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DVAX: +0.54% Sector: -0.32% +0.86%
EOD Gain
DVAX: +0.54% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480410.68%
Avg MFE
DVAX: +3.04% Sector: +7.56% -4.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DVAX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-21 09:25:09 $12.05 +1.49% +1.41% +2.12% +2.86% +2.57% +3.28% +0.50% +1.74% WIN
2024-05-14 09:26:06 $10.43 +4.89% +4.60% +3.93% +3.21% +5.46% +6.33% -0.10% +1.63% WIN
2024-04-30 09:26:31 $11.34 -0.71% -0.44% -0.13% +0.04% +0.26% +0.88% -0.88% -0.09% LOSS
2024-04-25 09:29:41 $11.28 +0.09% +0.04% -0.44% -0.49% -0.98% +1.15% +0.89% +1.15% WIN
2024-03-18 09:29:10 $12.0 -0.04% -0.25% -0.67% -1.92% -2.50% +0.13% -1.08% -0.33% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:27:00 $14.2 +1.13% +0.14% -0.74% -1.06% -0.70% +1.13% -0.35% - WIN
2023-03-20 09:25:00 $9.59 -0.83% -0.16% +0.21% +1.67% +2.92% +3.49% -1.20% -0.73% LOSS
2022-12-09 09:25:00 $11.65 -1.37% -1.12% -2.23% -1.50% -3.43% - - -0.69% LOSS
2022-08-31 09:25:00 $11.49 +0.78% +1.74% +2.48% +0.90% -0.17% +2.96% -0.87% -0.87% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $12.47 -1.04% -2.85% -3.29% -4.57% -4.89% +0.08% -1.52% -0.56% LOSS
2022-05-13 09:25:00 $8.94 +1.57% +0.67% +5.98% +9.90% +7.38% +13.98% -0.67% +0.67% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 54.5% Baseline on DVAX

The 54.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push DVAX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize DVAX Strategy →

Why Analyze DVAX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DVAX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DVAX historically offers an average upside of +3.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DVAX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.5%, DVAX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show DVAX performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.54%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.