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ERAS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-18 → 2023-12-07

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Erasca, Inc. Common Stock PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 16, 2021 🔗 www.erasca.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.05B 👥 Employees: 129
Erasca Inc is a clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing therapies for patients with RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers. The company's product pipeline includes; Naporafenib, a pan-RAF inhibitor with first-in-class potential in NRASm melanoma, RAS Q61X tissue agnostic solid tumors, and other RAS/MAPK pathway-driven tumors, and ERAS-007 (oral ERK1/2 inhibitor) and ERAS-601 (oral SHP2 inhibitor), which target downstream and upstream nodes, respectively, of the RAS/MAPK pathway.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.63%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +5.80%
Avg Loser: -1.74%
Best: +5.80%
Worst: -2.15%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.63%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -2.82%
Best: +2.70%
Worst: -3.91%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.61%
Avg Winner: +2.16%
Avg Loser: -2.00%
Best: +2.16%
Worst: -3.12%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +2.42%
Avg Loser: -2.38%
Best: +4.41%
Worst: -4.49%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +3.82%
Avg Loser: -2.72%
Best: +3.82%
Worst: -3.71%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.89%
Best MFE: +7.38%
Avg Time to MFE: 40 min

On average, ERAS alerts reach +3.89% profit potential within 40 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.12%
Worst MAE: -3.46%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.12%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.47:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.47x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, ERAS typically reaches +3.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +1.24%
Best Gap +3.29%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How ERAS compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ERAS: -1.74% Sector: -0.32% -1.42%
EOD Gain
ERAS: -1.81% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480413.04%
Avg MFE
ERAS: +2.73% Sector: +7.56% -4.82%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ERAS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-07 09:25:00 $1.85 -1.35% +2.70% +2.16% -0.27% - +5.41% -1.35% +2.70% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $2.31 -1.73% -1.73% -0.87% +0.43% -1.73% +2.60% -3.46% -0.43% LOSS
2022-12-13 09:25:00 $5.12 -2.15% -3.91% -3.12% -4.49% -3.71% +0.20% +0.20% -0.59% LOSS
2022-11-18 09:25:00 $7.59 +5.80% +0.40% - +4.41% +3.82% +7.38% +0.13% +3.29% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ERAS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.63% average gain, ERAS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ERAS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ERAS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ERAS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ERAS historically offers an average upside of +3.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ERAS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, ERAS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ERAS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ERAS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.63%). This suggests ERAS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.