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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$FLY

Trade-Ideas alerts 51.4% at 15-min n=109 2026-01-05 → 2026-10-01

🏢 Company Profile

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS (SIC 3760)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 07, 2025 🔗 www.fireflyspace.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.90B 👥 Employees: 1,409
Firefly Aerospace Inc is a space and defense technology company with an established track record of success providing comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers. The company develops and provides space and defense technologies, including launch vehicles and spacecraft systems, supporting launch, transit, and in-orbit operations for government, commercial, and national security customers. It has only one operating segment. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from Spacecraft Solutions.
Total alerts
109
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 15MIN
51.4%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 15MIN
-0.02%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+5.45%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading FLY on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -1.42%
Best: +6.70%
Worst: -6.64%
Trades: 46/62

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -2.52%
Best: +6.77%
Worst: -9.29%
Trades: 56/53

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +3.48%
Avg Loser: -3.07%
Best: +10.34%
Worst: -15.52%
Trades: 47/62

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.5%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +4.28%
Avg Loser: -3.91%
Best: +15.31%
Worst: -15.13%
Trades: 54/55

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.8%
Avg Gain: +0.38%
Avg Winner: +5.89%
Avg Loser: -4.47%
Best: +19.92%
Worst: -17.92%
Trades: 51/58

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.45%
Best MFE: +21.94%
Avg Time to MFE: 128 min

On average, FLY alerts reach +5.45% profit potential within 128 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.10%
Worst MAE: -8.38%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.10%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.6:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.6x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 109 alerts, FLY typically reaches +5.45% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 109
Gap Up % 44.0%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +4.40%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS

How FLY compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FLY: -0.15% Sector: -0.20% +0.05%
EOD Gain
FLY: +0.38% Sector: +659.42% -659.04%
Avg MFE
FLY: +5.45% Sector: +5.18% +0.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FLY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $23.42 -0.34% -0.36% +1.79% +2.78% -2.43% +4.05% -1.58% -0.30% LOSS
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $21.4 +1.40% +3.74% +2.15% +4.49% +6.66% +7.57% +0.00% +0.75% WIN
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $20.82 +0.82% +2.31% +4.66% +4.32% +4.32% +6.65% -0.43% +0.77% WIN
2026-08-21 09:25:00 $23.89 +0.63% +1.23% +1.55% +1.05% +2.34% +5.36% -0.73% +1.05% WIN
2026-08-18 09:25:00 $26.17 -1.51% +1.18% -2.52% -1.38% -0.11% +3.06% -3.36% -0.65% LOSS
2026-08-14 09:25:00 $27.63 +0.36% -0.98% -4.52% -1.70% -3.47% +2.06% -1.92% +0.43% WIN
2026-08-13 09:25:00 $25.96 -2.16% +2.80% +5.16% +4.89% +3.11% +6.71% -2.78% -2.51% LOSS
2026-08-11 09:25:00 $25.32 +1.17% +0.80% -0.04% +2.65% +4.11% +6.04% -1.07% +0.47% WIN
2026-08-10 09:25:00 $26.77 +1.04% -2.22% -2.07% -1.69% -3.78% +1.48% -0.24% +0.62% WIN
2026-08-07 09:25:00 $24.56 +0.57% +1.83% +2.00% +0.93% +8.75% +8.96% -1.26% -0.08% WIN
2026-08-05 09:25:00 $23.29 -1.25% -1.46% -0.52% -1.85% -1.93% +0.90% -1.89% -1.20% LOSS
2026-08-04 09:25:00 $22.8 +0.00% +0.22% -1.05% +0.35% +2.32% +4.69% -1.78% -0.42% LOSS
2026-07-31 09:25:00 $21.07 -0.40% -2.57% -5.36% -7.02% -3.51% +1.14% -2.14% +0.43% LOSS
2026-07-30 09:25:00 $18.33 +0.93% +0.93% +3.38% +2.97% +10.69% +11.51% -0.71% -0.33% WIN
2026-07-28 09:25:00 $19.53 -2.50% -4.13% -4.98% -5.00% -1.06% +4.06% -5.77% -1.16% LOSS
2026-07-27 09:25:00 $20.41 -1.81% +0.29% -0.64% -3.33% -2.60% +0.71% -4.41% -1.18% LOSS
2026-07-23 09:25:00 $19.66 +1.83% +4.27% +7.86% +5.44% +5.29% +8.49% +0.00% +1.53% WIN
2026-07-21 09:25:00 $19.78 +2.08% +0.37% +3.63% +4.31% +6.74% +8.71% -0.55% +0.67% WIN
2026-07-20 09:25:00 $19.42 +0.72% -0.88% -1.65% -0.85% +1.29% +2.73% -2.37% +0.23% WIN
2026-07-17 09:25:00 $18.18 +2.50% +0.41% +1.89% +3.49% +6.00% +11.22% -0.83% +0.49% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ FLY Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.4% win rate, FLY has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve win size or reduce loss size, making FLY profitable.

🔧 Fix FLY Risk / Reward →

Why Analyze FLY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FLY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FLY historically offers an average upside of +5.45% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FLY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.4%, FLY shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.52%) outweigh average wins (+2.34%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FLY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.02%). This suggests FLY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.