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RKLB Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 303 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-12 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Rocket Lab Corporation Common Stock GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS (SIC 3760)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 25, 2021 🔗 www.rocketlabusa.com
💰 Market Cap: $47.49B 👥 Employees: 2,100
Rocket Lab Corp is engaged in space, building rockets, and spacecraft. It provides end-to-end mission services that provide frequent and reliable access to space for civil, defense, and commercial markets. It designs and manufactures the Electron and Neutron launch vehicles and Photon satellite platform. Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle has delivered multiple satellites to orbit for private and public sector organizations, enabling operations in national security, scientific research, space debris mitigation, Earth observation, climate monitoring, and communications. The business operates in two segments Launch Services and Space Systems. Geographically it serves Japan, Germany, and rest of the world and earns key revenue from the United States.
📊
303
Total Alerts
🎯
43.5%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.23%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+3.51%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.2%
Avg Gain: -0.36%
Avg Winner: +1.45%
Avg Loser: -1.63%
Best: +7.95%
Worst: -7.13%
Trades: 121/175

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.5%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +2.18%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +11.06%
Worst: -9.10%
Trades: 125/170

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.2%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +2.46%
Avg Loser: -2.31%
Best: +10.73%
Worst: -11.61%
Trades: 130/170

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.5%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -2.60%
Best: +15.33%
Worst: -13.52%
Trades: 131/168

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +3.90%
Avg Loser: -3.08%
Best: +19.01%
Worst: -13.73%
Trades: 128/171

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.51%
Best MFE: +21.96%
Avg Time to MFE: 106 min

On average, RKLB alerts reach +3.51% profit potential within 106 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.55%
Worst MAE: -9.95%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.55%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.27:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.27x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 303 alerts, RKLB typically reaches +3.51% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 303
Gap Up % 28.1%
Avg Gap -0.27%
Best Gap +5.13%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS

How RKLB compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RKLB: -0.36% Sector: -0.22% -0.14%
EOD Gain
RKLB: -0.08% Sector: +1766.07% -1766.15%
Avg MFE
RKLB: +3.48% Sector: +5.23% -1.75%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RKLB alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:02 $28.25 -1.88% -2.34% -2.33% -2.12% -0.81% +1.42% -4.28% -0.04% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:29:59 $28.1 -1.21% -1.67% -2.70% -2.74% +0.71% +1.00% -3.88% -0.07% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:26:24 $27.99 -0.43% -1.14% +0.30% +0.55% -1.32% +2.11% -2.11% +0.07% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:29:04 $29.99 -0.50% -1.60% -2.03% -3.37% -5.90% +1.10% -1.06% -0.43% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:25 $28.0 -0.39% +2.25% +0.82% +0.96% +9.29% +11.00% -2.29% -0.89% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:25:50 $28.05 +0.36% +2.94% +4.53% +4.42% -2.28% +5.85% -1.00% -0.25% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:41 $28.82 -1.24% -0.82% -2.41% -1.47% -3.96% +0.35% -2.26% -0.83% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:51 $29.04 -3.65% -2.93% -1.98% -3.37% -1.52% +0.41% -0.29% -0.28% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:25:29 $29.43 -1.54% -1.16% -1.11% -0.14% -2.55% +2.48% -2.45% -1.39% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:27:41 $26.98 +0.70% -0.33% +1.83% +2.78% +5.19% +8.15% -1.96% +0.78% WIN
2025-01-31 09:26:24 $28.79 - +0.49% +1.47% +4.72% +0.90% +6.04% -1.85% -0.14% -
2025-01-30 09:29:35 $29.24 +3.80% +4.08% +1.81% -2.47% -2.43% +5.37% -1.20% -0.19% WIN
2025-01-29 09:29:57 $29.21 +2.93% +2.43% +0.73% +1.81% -1.16% +4.25% -0.27% +0.10% WIN
2025-01-28 09:25:59 $29.69 +0.85% -1.87% -1.15% +1.30% -2.39% +2.69% -2.46% +0.03% WIN
2025-01-27 09:27:37 $28.91 -0.42% -0.28% +2.04% +2.25% +1.80% +4.57% -1.49% +0.10% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:25:51 $31.95 +3.13% +1.44% +0.78% -0.56% -4.98% +4.35% -0.38% +0.25% WIN
2025-01-23 09:25:06 $28.53 +1.07% +3.44% +2.78% +1.79% +10.66% +11.29% -0.07% +1.65% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:54 $29.73 -1.98% -2.73% -2.72% +1.08% -0.37% +1.51% -3.80% -0.27% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:57 $26.28 +1.03% +6.62% +10.73% +15.33% +18.99% +20.40% -2.89% -1.07% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:24 $25.13 +0.64% -0.01% -0.44% -1.55% -4.50% +2.08% -2.39% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ RKLB Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.5% win rate and -0.23% average gain, RKLB alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider RKLB for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze RKLB with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RKLB. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RKLB historically offers an average upside of +3.51% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RKLB Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.5%, RKLB shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests RKLB may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: RKLB shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.23%). This suggests RKLB is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.