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LLY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 130 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-12 → 2025-02-06

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 09, 1970 🔗 www.lilly.com
💰 Market Cap: $952.56B 👥 Employees: 47,000
Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
📊
130
Total Alerts
🎯
50.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.03%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.57%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.6%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.75%
Best: +3.30%
Worst: -2.67%
Trades: 55/73

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.8%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -1.02%
Best: +3.82%
Worst: -5.46%
Trades: 57/73

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.14%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +4.38%
Worst: -6.67%
Trades: 61/69

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +4.68%
Worst: -5.87%
Trades: 60/70

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.8%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.40%
Avg Loser: -1.40%
Best: +5.58%
Worst: -5.19%
Trades: 66/63

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.57%
Best MFE: +7.29%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, LLY alerts reach +1.57% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.77%
Worst MAE: -4.12%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.77%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.04:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.04x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 130 alerts, LLY typically reaches +1.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 130
Gap Up % 45.4%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +2.57%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How LLY compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LLY: -0.17% Sector: -0.32% +0.15%
EOD Gain
LLY: +0.03% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480411.19%
Avg MFE
LLY: +1.58% Sector: +7.56% -5.98%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LLY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-06 09:29:27 $834.75 +3.30% +2.91% +3.02% +2.96% +4.27% +6.35% +0.10% +0.57% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:55 $835.0 +0.12% +0.60% +0.40% +0.06% +0.86% +1.43% -0.47% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-14 09:29:45 $785.67 -2.67% -5.46% -6.67% -5.87% -5.19% -0.18% -1.02% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:25:14 $787.4 +0.20% +0.86% +0.46% -0.04% +1.59% +1.60% -0.32% +0.58% WIN
2025-01-08 09:27:50 $774.07 -0.24% +0.46% +0.35% +0.90% +1.70% +2.39% -0.44% -0.03% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:26:43 $763.0 +0.21% +0.78% +2.23% +1.62% +1.35% +2.75% -0.18% +0.25% WIN
2024-12-20 09:25:00 $807.68 +0.09% -0.14% -1.80% -2.49% -4.94% +0.75% -0.33% +0.45% WIN
2024-12-17 09:27:23 $776.04 +1.00% +0.40% -0.10% -0.19% +0.33% +1.54% -0.47% +0.23% WIN
2024-12-16 09:26:18 $788.1 +0.37% +1.11% +1.10% +0.74% -1.15% +1.48% +0.00% +0.49% WIN
2024-11-26 09:28:37 $790.7 -1.14% -1.56% -1.27% -0.31% -0.17% +2.06% -2.12% -0.70% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:27:13 $802.5 +0.06% +1.21% +1.51% +2.28% +3.62% +5.58% -0.15% +0.12% WIN
2024-11-01 09:27:52 $830.85 -0.25% -0.45% -0.76% -0.19% -1.43% +0.26% -0.64% -0.34% LOSS
2024-10-31 09:25:38 $837.0 -0.93% -0.02% -0.31% -1.21% -0.87% +1.97% -1.41% -0.06% LOSS
2024-10-30 09:25:09 $802.06 -0.30% -3.96% -1.66% +1.55% +5.58% +7.29% -4.12% -0.44% LOSS
2024-10-28 09:29:35 $898.62 -0.40% -0.82% -0.41% -0.58% -0.34% -0.05% -0.87% -0.42% LOSS
2024-10-25 09:25:02 $895.0 +0.13% +0.57% +0.39% +0.20% -0.26% +0.67% -0.02% +0.53% WIN
2024-10-17 09:29:33 $923.0 +0.00% +0.61% +0.00% -0.13% -0.64% +0.81% -0.43% -0.22% LOSS
2024-09-30 09:25:50 $865.98 -0.20% +0.58% +1.04% +0.58% +2.30% +2.48% -0.92% -0.17% LOSS
2024-09-23 09:26:53 $922.0 -1.04% -0.73% -0.97% -0.41% -0.38% +0.00% +0.00% -0.11% LOSS
2024-08-27 09:29:19 $948.77 +1.47% +1.26% +2.32% +1.58% +0.60% +2.50% +0.12% +0.39% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.8% Baseline on LLY

The 50.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push LLY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize LLY Strategy →

Why Analyze LLY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LLY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LLY historically offers an average upside of +1.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LLY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.8%, LLY shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show LLY performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.03%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.