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NBIX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 14 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-16 → 2024-12-23

⚠️ Small sample size (14 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 23, 1996 🔗 www.neurocrine.com
💰 Market Cap: $13.58B 👥 Employees: 1,800
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of neurological and endocrine-related diseases and disorders in the United States. The company's products include INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease; ALKINDI for adrenal insufficiency; Efmody capsules for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia; Orilissa tablets for endometriosis; and Oriahnn capsules to treat uterine fibroids.
📊
14
Total Alerts
🎯
78.6%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.28%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.75%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -0.84%
Best: +3.14%
Worst: -1.28%
Trades: 7/7

15MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.27%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: -0.87%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -1.47%
Trades: 8/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 78.6%
Avg Gain: +0.28%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -2.64%
Best: +3.04%
Worst: -3.81%
Trades: 11/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +0.38%
Avg Winner: +1.24%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +4.14%
Worst: -3.27%
Trades: 10/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +5.45%
Worst: -4.53%
Trades: 10/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.75%
Best MFE: +7.11%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, NBIX alerts reach +1.75% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.40%
Worst MAE: -2.86%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.40%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.36:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.36x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 14 alerts, NBIX typically reaches +1.75% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 14
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +0.34%
Best Gap +4.64%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How NBIX compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NBIX: +0.14% Sector: -0.41% +0.56%
EOD Gain
NBIX: +0.34% Sector: +1233.50% -1233.16%
Avg MFE
NBIX: +1.75% Sector: +6.69% -4.94%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NBIX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-23 09:27:48 $136.74 -1.28% -0.99% -1.48% -2.07% +0.18% +0.27% -2.86% -1.00% LOSS
2024-08-28 09:28:47 $126.0 -0.91% -1.45% -3.81% -1.72% -1.78% +1.59% -1.00% -0.08% LOSS
2024-08-08 09:28:20 $145.93 -0.58% +0.20% +0.99% +0.41% +0.55% +1.36% -1.56% -0.74% LOSS
2023-07-31 09:29:00 $102.75 +0.18% +0.42% +0.42% +0.07% -0.84% +0.73% +0.03% +0.05% WIN
2023-07-26 09:28:00 $100.5 +0.50% +0.31% +0.15% -0.04% -0.12% +1.20% -0.27% +0.53% WIN
2023-07-03 09:28:00 $94.32 -0.64% -0.11% +0.07% +0.27% +0.17% +0.76% -0.64% -0.33% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:29:00 $101.14 +1.12% +1.37% +1.26% +1.27% +1.64% +1.81% +0.53% +0.67% WIN
2023-02-13 09:28:00 $102.99 -0.58% -0.25% +0.59% +0.87% +0.51% +1.28% -0.84% +0.17% LOSS
2023-02-08 09:29:00 $99.09 +3.14% +2.42% +3.04% +4.14% +5.45% +7.11% +2.06% +4.64% WIN
2023-01-06 09:25:00 $122.95 +1.25% +0.04% +0.01% +0.80% +0.06% +1.68% -0.17% +1.12% WIN
2022-09-08 09:25:00 $106.2 -0.77% -0.93% +1.69% +1.21% +0.45% +2.16% -1.48% -1.13% LOSS
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $104.88 +0.30% +1.17% +1.04% +0.81% +0.72% +1.98% +0.30% +0.30% WIN
2022-08-03 09:25:00 $91.89 +1.43% +3.01% +2.60% +2.55% +2.36% +3.68% +1.43% +1.74% WIN
2022-06-16 09:25:00 $93.15 -1.15% -1.47% -2.63% -3.27% -4.53% -1.09% -1.15% -1.15% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 78.6% Baseline on NBIX

The 78.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NBIX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NBIX Strategy →

Why Analyze NBIX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NBIX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NBIX historically offers an average upside of +1.75% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NBIX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 78.6%, NBIX shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NBIX performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.28%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.