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NVAX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 312 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-01-13

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 05, 1995 🔗 www.novavax.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.49B 👥 Employees: 1,992
Novavax Inc is a biotechnology company that develops vaccines. The company works in the clinical stage of development with a focus on delivering novel products that prevent a broad range of diseases. It works together with its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary to produce vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats. The company believes its vaccine technology has the potential to be applied broadly to a wide variety of human infectious diseases. The company manages its business as one operating segment, the development and commercialization of vaccines. The company generates maximum revenue from the United States.
📊
312
Total Alerts
🎯
45.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+5.20%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.3%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +1.58%
Avg Loser: -1.65%
Best: +7.82%
Worst: -8.77%
Trades: 132/177

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.6%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +2.60%
Avg Loser: -2.59%
Best: +15.00%
Worst: -9.71%
Trades: 139/168

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.2%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +3.39%
Avg Loser: -2.79%
Best: +17.66%
Worst: -16.58%
Trades: 138/174

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.6%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +4.15%
Avg Loser: -3.23%
Best: +25.84%
Worst: -15.87%
Trades: 136/174

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +5.72%
Avg Loser: -4.62%
Best: +35.57%
Worst: -22.66%
Trades: 141/170

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.20%
Best MFE: +44.47%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, NVAX alerts reach +5.20% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.89%
Worst MAE: -11.94%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.89%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.75:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.75x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 312 alerts, NVAX typically reaches +5.20% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 312
Gap Up % 33.0%
Avg Gap -0.22%
Best Gap +3.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How NVAX compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NVAX: -0.27% Sector: -0.41% +0.14%
EOD Gain
NVAX: +0.07% Sector: +1233.50% -1233.43%
Avg MFE
NVAX: +5.20% Sector: +6.69% -1.48%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVAX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-13 09:28:39 $8.9 -4.49% -5.24% -3.99% -5.39% -3.31% - -2.02% -0.22% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:26:39 $9.48 +0.11% -1.37% -2.48% -4.48% -1.74% +0.74% -1.42% -0.32% WIN
2025-01-08 09:28:34 $10.51 -1.90% -4.01% -5.04% -6.52% -8.61% +0.57% -1.24% -0.38% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:28:16 $9.98 +4.76% +11.82% +13.38% +12.98% +8.42% +15.73% -1.00% -0.30% WIN
2025-01-06 09:27:57 $9.03 +1.00% +0.44% -1.00% +0.64% +8.08% +11.13% -1.33% +0.11% WIN
2024-12-13 09:28:45 $8.97 +1.56% +1.78% +0.28% +0.72% +1.56% +3.57% -1.00% +0.33% WIN
2024-12-04 09:28:52 $8.59 -1.40% -2.10% -2.37% -3.84% -3.38% -0.47% -2.79% -0.70% LOSS
2024-11-15 09:29:02 $7.18 -2.09% -3.06% -2.16% -0.69% +1.95% +2.22% -5.15% -0.56% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:25:04 $7.8 -0.90% -0.83% -2.19% -1.96% -7.44% +1.79% -3.21% - LOSS
2024-11-12 09:29:14 $8.01 +6.49% +0.50% +3.50% +6.93% +5.62% +11.11% -1.50% +0.50% WIN
2024-11-11 09:26:58 $9.88 +4.45% -2.17% -6.88% -7.19% -8.81% +5.16% -2.83% +0.10% WIN
2024-11-06 09:27:48 $9.04 -2.77% -5.65% -4.19% +0.22% -0.89% +2.54% -1.99% +0.22% LOSS
2024-10-17 09:26:00 $10.2 -1.37% -1.13% -0.15% -1.67% +1.47% +2.11% -3.24% -0.39% LOSS
2024-10-16 09:29:44 $10.44 -4.21% -5.84% -3.93% -2.01% -2.78% +2.20% -7.85% -0.10% LOSS
2024-10-09 09:28:29 $13.45 -3.49% -3.35% -4.61% -2.97% -5.72% -0.74% -2.75% -2.08% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:29:45 $14.59 +0.03% -1.75% -2.95% -1.65% -6.72% +0.77% -0.96% -0.89% WIN
2024-10-03 09:29:43 $14.11 +1.74% +1.98% +1.91% +1.42% +2.20% +6.95% -0.71% -0.28% WIN
2024-09-03 09:28:35 $12.42 +3.64% +4.43% +5.56% +5.14% +2.01% +6.28% -1.12% -1.05% WIN
2024-08-20 09:26:02 $13.71 -0.66% -0.07% -0.18% -1.93% -5.03% +0.66% -1.46% -0.36% LOSS
2024-08-19 09:27:10 $13.16 -1.37% +0.38% -1.03% +1.37% +5.62% +7.07% -3.12% -0.57% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 45.2% Baseline on NVAX

The 45.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NVAX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NVAX Strategy →

Why Analyze NVAX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVAX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVAX historically offers an average upside of +5.20% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVAX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 45.2%, NVAX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NVAX performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.