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TOVX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 16 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-06-28 → 2024-12-24

⚠️ Small sample size (16 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Theriva Biologics, Inc. PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NYSE American 📅 IPO: Apr 05, 1993 🔗 www.therivabio.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.0M 👥 Employees: 22
Theriva Biologics Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company developing a novel oncolytic adenovirus (OV) platform to address devastating cancers with high unmet needs. It is a clinical-stage program VCN-01, designed to break down the tumor stroma, and its preclinical-stage program VCN-11 leverages its proprietary Albumin Shield Technology to protect systemically administered oncolytic viruses from the host immune system.
📊
16
Total Alerts
🎯
56.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+123.80%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+10.82%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 31.2%
Avg Gain: -0.95%
Avg Winner: +4.69%
Avg Loser: -3.51%
Best: +12.16%
Worst: -6.10%
Trades: 5/11

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -1.48%
Avg Winner: +2.97%
Avg Loser: -4.45%
Best: +11.00%
Worst: -8.72%
Trades: 6/9

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.93%
Avg Winner: +14.82%
Avg Loser: -6.12%
Best: +30.79%
Worst: -13.20%
Trades: 3/12

60MIN

Win Rate: 26.7%
Avg Gain: -4.72%
Avg Winner: +5.46%
Avg Loser: -8.42%
Best: +7.07%
Worst: -18.86%
Trades: 4/11

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 56.2%
Avg Gain: +123.80%
Avg Winner: +225.72%
Avg Loser: -7.24%
Best: +1947.41%
Worst: -14.86%
Trades: 9/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +10.82%
Best MFE: +36.05%
Avg Time to MFE: 85 min

On average, TOVX alerts reach +10.82% profit potential within 85 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.25%
Worst MAE: -10.53%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.25%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.33:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.33x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 16 alerts, TOVX typically reaches +10.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 8.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 16
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap -0.16%
Best Gap +4.19%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How TOVX compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TOVX: -1.26% Sector: -0.32% -0.94%
EOD Gain
TOVX: +140.55% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480270.67%
Avg MFE
TOVX: +11.37% Sector: +7.56% +3.81%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TOVX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-24 09:28:45 $1.6 +1.25% -1.25% -3.12% -1.21% +10.00% +30.00% -8.12% -4.38% WIN
2024-12-05 09:25:48 $1.35 -3.68% -7.17% -6.67% -5.93% -4.44% -1.48% -2.22% -4.44% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:27:56 $1.91 +5.24% +11.00% +7.85% +7.07% +3.14% +11.67% +1.57% +4.19% WIN
2024-11-04 09:27:52 $1.83 -0.55% +0.55% -3.83% -0.68% +13.11% +13.66% -4.64% +3.28% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:26:16 $2.19 -2.05% +3.06% -6.16% -15.13% -9.13% +20.55% -4.11% - LOSS
2024-10-16 09:26:19 $1.38 -0.72% - +5.80% +5.07% +5.80% +6.38% -0.72% +1.45% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:27:43 $1.72 -5.81% -8.72% -9.87% -8.67% -2.33% +2.33% -2.33% +2.33% LOSS
2024-10-03 09:26:53 $1.86 -4.84% -5.91% -9.68% -11.30% -3.76% +3.76% -4.30% -0.54% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:28:13 $1.75 -3.43% -4.29% -13.20% -12.00% -14.86% +0.57% -4.57% -3.43% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:29:34 $2.28 -5.70% -7.45% -11.18% -18.86% -10.53% +0.88% +0.53% +0.88% LOSS
2024-08-30 09:28:19 $6.25 +12.16% -3.04% -0.80% -5.76% -5.60% +14.40% -1.60% -1.12% WIN
2024-08-29 09:29:41 $3.8 -6.10% +1.32% +30.79% +3.82% +23.68% +36.05% -10.53% -0.79% LOSS
2023-08-02 09:25:00 $0.64 +3.14% +1.32% - - +7.34% +7.64% -0.44% +3.14% WIN
2023-06-30 09:27:00 $0.85 +1.68% +0.58% -2.35% +5.89% +17.65% +18.82% -2.56% -0.01% WIN
2023-06-29 09:25:00 $0.89 -0.58% -1.45% -1.37% -0.61% +3.35% +4.47% -6.20% -2.19% LOSS
2023-06-28 09:29:00 $1.16 -5.17% -0.79% -5.17% -12.50% +1947.41% +3.45% -1.72% -0.86% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.2% Baseline on TOVX

The 56.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TOVX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TOVX Strategy →

Why Analyze TOVX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TOVX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TOVX historically offers an average upside of +10.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TOVX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.2%, TOVX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TOVX performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +123.80%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.