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Latest signal:

UDN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-22 → 2024-11-06

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (SIC 6221)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 25, 2008
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.09%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+0.33%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.11%
Avg Loser: -0.07%
Best: +0.11%
Worst: -0.11%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.04%
Avg Loser: -0.05%
Best: +0.04%
Worst: -0.05%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.09%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.11%
Worst: +0.06%
Trades: 3/0

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.09%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.17%
Worst: +0.05%
Trades: 3/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.14%
Avg Loser: -0.60%
Best: +0.17%
Worst: -0.64%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.33%
Best MFE: +0.61%
Avg Time to MFE: 127 min

On average, UDN alerts reach +0.33% profit potential within 127 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.05%
Worst MAE: -0.16%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.05%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.69:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.69x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, UDN typically reaches +0.33% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +0.06%
Best Gap +0.17%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How UDN compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UDN: -0.06% Sector: -0.01% -0.05%
EOD Gain
UDN: -0.20% Sector: +257.70% -257.90%
Avg MFE
UDN: +0.42% Sector: +1.89% -1.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UDN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-06 09:27:20 $18.11 -0.05% - +0.06% +0.17% +0.17% +0.61% -0.09% +0.17% LOSS
2022-09-13 09:25:00 $17.6 -0.06% +0.04% +0.11% +0.06% -0.57% +0.23% -0.06% +0.11% LOSS
2022-08-02 09:25:00 $18.26 +0.11% -0.05% - - -0.64% +0.11% +0.11% +0.11% WIN
2022-06-22 09:25:00 $18.51 -0.11% - +0.11% +0.05% +0.11% +0.38% -0.16% -0.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on UDN

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push UDN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize UDN Strategy →

Why Analyze UDN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UDN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UDN historically offers an average upside of +0.33% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UDN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, UDN shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show UDN performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.09%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.