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UNG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 756 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP Unit COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (SIC 6221)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 25, 2008
📊
756
Total Alerts
🎯
65.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+96.35%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.14%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.31%
Avg Loser: -0.32%
Best: +1.76%
Worst: -2.95%
Trades: 366/356

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.6%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.56%
Best: +2.65%
Worst: -8.51%
Trades: 374/362

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +4.54%
Worst: -10.42%
Trades: 347/397

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.95%
Best: +7.12%
Worst: -12.31%
Trades: 363/383

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 65.3%
Avg Gain: +96.35%
Avg Winner: +148.67%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +331.95%
Worst: -9.95%
Trades: 492/255

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.14%
Best MFE: +11.87%
Avg Time to MFE: 152 min

On average, UNG alerts reach +2.14% profit potential within 152 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.80%
Worst MAE: -6.76%
Avg Time to MAE: 30 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.80%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.68:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.68x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 756 alerts, UNG typically reaches +2.14% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 756
Gap Up % 45.5%
Avg Gap +0.01%
Best Gap +1.38%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How UNG compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UNG: -0.00% Sector: -0.01% +0.01%
EOD Gain
UNG: +96.60% Sector: +257.70% -161.10%
Avg MFE
UNG: +2.14% Sector: +1.89% +0.25%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UNG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:52 $19.6 +0.10% +0.97% +0.87% +0.46% +0.26% +2.04% - +0.05% WIN
2025-02-13 09:28:06 $19.54 +0.31% +0.18% +0.20% +0.90% -2.00% +2.05% -0.31% - WIN
2025-02-12 09:28:26 $18.8 -0.07% +0.16% -0.35% -0.37% -0.05% +0.64% -1.97% -0.21% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:28:44 $18.63 +0.51% +0.13% +0.22% +0.11% -0.27% +1.40% -0.21% +0.27% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:05 $17.89 -0.66% -0.67% -0.45% +0.59% +1.79% +2.91% -1.01% -0.39% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:12 $17.75 +0.64% +1.01% +1.04% +0.31% -1.52% +1.13% +0.11% +0.11% WIN
2025-02-06 09:28:38 $17.47 +0.46% +0.47% +0.17% +0.52% +2.40% +3.72% -0.17% +0.11% WIN
2025-02-05 09:27:52 $16.95 +0.12% +1.03% +1.24% +1.30% +5.01% +5.13% -0.12% -0.06% WIN
2025-02-04 09:28:55 $16.75 +0.60% +0.90% +1.25% +1.67% +1.91% +4.54% -0.12% -0.12% WIN
2025-02-03 09:26:46 $17.47 -0.29% -0.23% +0.06% -0.46% +0.97% +2.92% -0.50% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:29:22 $15.95 - +0.19% -0.25% -0.38% +1.50% +1.88% -0.56% +0.13% -
2025-01-30 09:26:56 $16.51 - -0.39% -0.27% +0.36% -2.24% +1.15% -0.67% -0.12% -
2025-01-29 09:28:42 $16.7 -0.15% -0.36% -0.66% -1.23% +0.36% +0.93% -2.10% +0.06% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:27:37 $16.58 -0.05% +0.78% +1.39% +0.30% -1.75% +1.60% -0.09% +0.06% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:11 $17.25 -0.35% -0.49% -0.52% -1.28% -0.58% +0.06% -0.23% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:12 $17.84 +0.11% - -0.51% -1.01% +1.57% +2.63% -1.12% +0.06% WIN
2025-01-23 09:29:37 $18.74 -0.08% -0.49% +0.27% -0.85% -2.61% +0.85% -0.69% -0.05% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:25:10 $17.88 -0.06% +0.34% -0.34% +0.06% +3.69% +4.03% -0.50% -0.11% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:26:31 $17.97 +0.28% +0.42% +0.19% -0.19% -1.34% +0.67% -0.06% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:40 $18.57 -0.51% - +0.97% +0.46% -1.24% +1.88% -0.59% -0.38% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 65.3% Baseline on UNG

The 65.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push UNG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize UNG Strategy →

Why Analyze UNG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UNG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UNG historically offers an average upside of +2.14% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UNG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 65.3%, UNG shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show UNG performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +96.35%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.