Let’s run the historical tape on C3is Inc. ($CISS). Today the tiny $2M micro-cap is ripping 80.08% on zero news, with retail forums screaming about a short squeeze.
But the database doesn't trade on hope. In 17 historical gap-up days of 5% or more for $CISS, the stock faded to red 88% of the time, mapping a brutal median intraday return of -9.03%.
On the other side of the tape, setups like this—no-news gap-ups of 30% or more on low floats—close red 70% of the time across 2,411 historical instances.
The base rate says this closes red by the bell—we'll grade the receipt here.