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$HKPD -34.20% — what the base rate says

$HKPD -34.20% — what the base rate says

Tuesday midday tape has everything: $GPRO ripping 46.09% on a definitive merger agreement with Starman Optical, while $FLYE climbs 53.68% on a 2M-share float with zero news in sight.

Flip side: $HKPD cratered -34.20% into thin air, and $RZLV dropped -17.47% as last week's AI headlines met reality.

Retail sees green bars and assumes durable momentum. The historical base rate across 3,283 catalyst gap-ups of 30% or more shows the opposite: these setups fade to red 66% of the time intraday.

Price action is not an investment thesis.

What the data showed

  • $HKPD -34.20% Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=971) mcap $14M · float 41M shares
  • $NIO -3.90% NIO Inc. mcap $15.2B · float 2.3B shares
  • $NVDA -0.71% NVIDIA Corporation mcap $5253.2B · float 23.3B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $RZLV -17.47% Rezolve AI PLC · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) mcap $1.1B · float 278M shares
  • $INTC -1.12% Intel Corporation mcap $472.9B · float 4.3B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $NOK -3.40% Nokia Oyj mcap $57.2B · float 5.7B shares · sector: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment
  • $SPCX -0.55% Space Exploration Technologies Corp. float 4.5B shares
  • $NU -0.07% Nu Holdings Ltd. mcap $69.1B · float 3.6B shares · sector: Finance Services
  • $ONDS -7.45% Ondas Inc. mcap $4.5B · float 567M shares · sector: RADIO & TV BROADCASTING & COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT
  • $PATH -3.21% UiPath, Inc. mcap $9.4B · float 403M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net before chasing midday catalyst runners. Discipline > FOMO

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