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NIO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 12, 2018 🔗 www.nio.com
💰 Market Cap: $11.61B 👥 Employees: 45,635
Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched its first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV, in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold around 222,000 EVs in 2024, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
44.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.20%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +6.79%
Worst: -5.16%
Trades: 324/421

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.5%
Avg Gain: -0.22%
Avg Winner: +1.65%
Avg Loser: -1.74%
Best: +8.90%
Worst: -8.82%
Trades: 337/417

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +2.21%
Avg Loser: -2.06%
Best: +11.29%
Worst: -10.82%
Trades: 325/424

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.8%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +2.52%
Avg Loser: -2.37%
Best: +14.85%
Worst: -15.31%
Trades: 324/427

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.8%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +3.15%
Avg Loser: -3.04%
Best: +16.79%
Worst: -12.79%
Trades: 340/402

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.89%
Best MFE: +17.33%
Avg Time to MFE: 93 min

On average, NIO alerts reach +2.89% profit potential within 93 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.19%
Worst MAE: -9.07%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.19%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.42:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.42x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, NIO typically reaches +2.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 34.5%
Avg Gap -0.11%
Best Gap +2.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NIO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:50 $4.37 +1.03% +1.03% +3.07% +1.58% +1.60% +4.12% -0.69% -0.46% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:57 $4.17 +1.84% +2.01% +2.46% +1.44% +2.16% +2.88% -0.24% -0.12% WIN
2025-02-12 09:26:54 $4.09 -0.12% +0.73% +0.12% +0.86% +2.93% +3.18% -1.10% -0.24% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:47 $4.22 -1.18% -0.83% -0.95% -2.13% -4.27% +0.24% +0.23% -0.24% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:59 $4.31 -0.58% -1.39% -1.39% +0.46% +0.46% +0.93% -1.62% +0.23% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:40 $4.29 +0.12% -0.23% -0.85% -1.28% -1.17% +0.93% -0.23% -0.23% WIN
2025-02-06 09:28:11 $4.25 +0.24% -0.47% -0.47% +0.35% -1.18% +1.18% -1.41% -0.24% WIN
2025-02-05 09:27:50 $4.28 -0.95% -0.93% -0.73% -1.40% -1.87% +0.19% -1.17% -0.47% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:25:20 $4.36 +1.38% +1.61% +2.18% +1.61% +0.69% +3.21% -0.45% +0.23% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:50 $4.18 -0.21% +1.17% +0.42% +1.32% +2.39% +4.90% -1.66% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:28:04 $4.45 +0.22% -1.35% -0.90% -1.91% -2.92% +1.12% -2.25% -0.45% WIN
2025-01-30 09:28:01 $4.27 +0.23% +1.17% +0.47% +1.70% +3.98% +4.68% - - WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:59 $4.34 -1.38% -2.19% -1.96% -1.32% -2.77% +0.23% -0.23% -0.46% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:25:32 $4.28 -1.52% -2.31% -1.88% -0.58% +0.93% +1.17% -2.57% -0.23% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:22 $4.3 +1.51% +0.70% +1.74% +2.05% -0.70% +2.79% - +0.47% WIN
2025-01-24 09:25:43 $4.19 +0.38% -0.72% -0.72% -0.12% +2.39% +3.82% -1.19% - WIN
2025-01-23 09:28:43 $4.24 -1.06% -1.53% -1.42% -1.71% -2.59% - -0.24% -0.47% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:27:08 $4.17 -0.21% -0.36% -0.72% +0.49% +2.64% +4.56% -0.96% - LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:40 $4.34 -0.35% -2.05% -1.61% -3.00% -3.69% +0.92% -0.23% +0.23% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:28:44 $4.22 +0.59% +0.48% +2.59% +2.82% +3.32% +4.74% -0.71% -0.24% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NIO Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.8% win rate and -0.20% average gain, NIO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NIO for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NIO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NIO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NIO historically offers an average upside of +2.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NIO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.8%, NIO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NIO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NIO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.20%). This suggests NIO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.