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MP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 27 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2025-02-05

⚠️ Small sample size (27 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

MP Materials Corp. METAL MINING (SIC 1000)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 18, 2020 🔗 www.mpmaterials.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.33B 👥 Employees: 804
MP Materials Corp is the producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. The company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. The company is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy, and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas. The company's operations are organized into two reportable segments: Materials and Magnetics.
📊
27
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.05%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+2.71%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 26.9%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +3.38%
Worst: -2.62%
Trades: 7/19

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.46%
Avg Loser: -1.81%
Best: +4.64%
Worst: -3.87%
Trades: 14/12

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +1.37%
Avg Loser: -2.22%
Best: +3.07%
Worst: -4.47%
Trades: 12/14

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.3%
Avg Gain: -0.93%
Avg Winner: +1.60%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +4.49%
Worst: -4.71%
Trades: 11/15

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.7%
Avg Gain: -0.97%
Avg Winner: +3.33%
Avg Loser: -4.19%
Best: +9.98%
Worst: -9.40%
Trades: 11/15

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.71%
Best MFE: +10.33%
Avg Time to MFE: 133 min

On average, MP alerts reach +2.71% profit potential within 133 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.67%
Worst MAE: -6.65%
Avg Time to MAE: 20 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.67%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.62:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 27 alerts, MP typically reaches +2.71% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 27
Gap Up % 22.2%
Avg Gap -0.32%
Best Gap +1.17%

🏭 Sector Comparison: METAL MINING

How MP compares to 13 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MP: -0.55% Sector: -0.11% -0.44%
EOD Gain
MP: -1.14% Sector: +1.60% -2.74%
Avg MFE
MP: +2.66% Sector: +3.29% -0.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-05 09:26:23 $24.47 -2.62% -3.80% -4.47% -3.51% -3.72% +0.93% +0.93% - LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:04 $22.49 +3.38% +3.60% +3.07% +4.49% +8.80% +10.18% +0.04% +0.62% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:18 $22.39 -0.10% +4.64% +1.70% +0.40% -0.71% +5.72% -1.30% -0.18% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:27:20 $20.17 -1.19% -1.69% -2.58% -3.17% -3.12% +0.40% -0.30% +0.40% LOSS
2024-12-04 09:27:26 $23.22 +0.98% +0.30% -0.06% -2.73% -9.00% +1.64% -0.47% -0.04% WIN
2024-12-03 09:25:08 $23.48 -2.47% -0.77% +0.34% -1.41% -1.58% +2.26% -4.16% -1.75% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:26:56 $19.35 +0.83% +0.79% -0.83% +0.78% +1.71% +2.69% +0.62% +0.98% WIN
2024-04-30 09:28:20 $16.13 -1.74% -1.12% -1.24% -1.18% -0.81% -0.28% -2.29% -0.81% LOSS
2024-04-10 09:29:21 $16.92 +0.24% +0.47% +0.59% +2.87% +2.90% +3.49% -1.42% -0.06% WIN
2024-03-15 09:26:11 $13.76 +0.87% +2.30% +0.73% +0.44% +1.02% +2.47% -0.07% +0.36% WIN
2024-03-13 09:25:22 $14.58 -1.17% +1.99% +1.51% -0.03% -3.64% +2.54% -1.17% -0.21% LOSS
2024-03-05 09:26:39 $15.75 -1.27% -2.35% -2.91% -2.73% -9.40% -0.06% -0.19% -0.25% LOSS
2024-03-04 09:26:17 $15.66 -0.51% -2.34% -3.96% -2.27% -0.83% +0.06% -4.09% -1.09% LOSS
2024-02-02 00:00:00 $16.64 - - - - +3.31% +4.06% -2.88% -0.06% -
2023-12-22 09:25:00 $20.59 -1.14% +0.63% +0.05% -2.93% -2.43% +1.09% -1.60% -0.63% LOSS
2023-07-06 09:25:00 $24.9 -0.80% -0.41% -2.61% -3.88% -2.41% +0.72% -1.93% -0.80% LOSS
2023-07-05 09:29:00 $25.73 -2.14% -3.87% -2.57% -3.30% -4.59% +0.19% -1.32% -0.62% LOSS
2023-03-02 09:26:00 $31.8 -1.54% -2.57% -2.07% -3.40% +0.28% +1.37% -4.09% -0.28% LOSS
2022-09-13 09:25:00 $32.19 -1.71% +0.37% +2.21% +1.58% +0.56% +2.70% -2.05% -1.55% LOSS
2022-07-25 09:25:00 $30.64 -0.24% -1.27% +0.03% +0.20% +1.73% +2.84% -3.90% -0.33% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MP Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.8% win rate, MP has -0.05% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making MP profitable.

🔧 Fix MP Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze MP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MP historically offers an average upside of +2.71% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, MP shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.81%) outweigh average wins (+1.46%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MP shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.05%). This suggests MP is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.