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BHP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 311 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-06

🏢 Company Profile

BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 28, 1987 🔗 www.bhp.com
💰 Market Cap: $172.08B 👥 Employees: 90,000
BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018, and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low nickel prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.
📊
311
Total Alerts
🎯
56.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.05%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.5%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.27%
Avg Loser: -0.26%
Best: +1.29%
Worst: -2.49%
Trades: 175/127

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -0.45%
Best: +1.42%
Worst: -1.83%
Trades: 159/148

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.60%
Best: +2.17%
Worst: -2.42%
Trades: 159/148

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.7%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.68%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +2.84%
Worst: -2.87%
Trades: 148/161

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.1%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -0.90%
Best: +4.32%
Worst: -3.85%
Trades: 165/145

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.01%
Best MFE: +5.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 149 min

On average, BHP alerts reach +1.01% profit potential within 149 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.37%
Worst MAE: -3.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.37%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.71:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.71x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 311 alerts, BHP typically reaches +1.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 311
Gap Up % 55.9%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +2.13%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BHP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-06 09:28:49 $51.17 -0.04% +0.06% -0.35% -0.06% -0.94% +0.15% -0.43% +0.06% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:38 $50.15 +0.04% +0.08% -0.50% -0.38% -0.56% +0.30% -0.02% -0.02% WIN
2025-01-10 09:26:00 $48.97 -0.03% -0.20% -0.82% -0.71% -0.88% +0.22% -0.02% +0.12% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:29:41 $54.1 -0.09% +0.50% +0.76% +0.31% -0.65% +1.05% -0.17% +0.22% LOSS
2024-11-15 09:26:42 $52.12 +0.35% - +0.04% +0.17% -0.54% +0.50% -0.08% -0.06% WIN
2024-11-14 09:27:14 $52.06 +0.43% +0.22% +0.19% +0.40% -0.02% +0.71% +0.06% +0.06% WIN
2024-11-08 09:29:19 $56.15 -0.43% -1.05% -1.19% -1.80% -1.71% -0.09% -0.39% -0.14% LOSS
2024-10-15 09:25:50 $58.45 +0.27% -0.21% -0.10% -0.17% -0.50% +0.31% -0.12% -0.07% WIN
2024-10-03 09:26:54 $60.86 -0.06% +0.05% +0.31% +0.38% +0.05% +0.71% -0.15% -0.08% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:28:51 $60.34 +0.05% -0.20% -0.20% -0.41% +0.94% +1.42% -0.68% +0.02% WIN
2024-09-24 09:27:52 $56.76 +0.93% +0.60% +0.14% +0.48% +1.04% +1.15% -0.17% +0.53% WIN
2024-09-19 09:27:44 $55.15 -0.13% -0.27% -0.35% -0.29% +0.07% +0.54% -0.02% +0.38% LOSS
2024-09-06 09:25:52 $51.68 +0.19% -0.04% +0.03% -0.52% -0.56% +0.60% -0.14% -0.06% WIN
2024-09-03 09:26:32 $52.73 +0.13% -0.21% -0.36% -1.09% -0.74% +0.17% -0.21% +0.01% WIN
2024-08-28 09:26:34 $54.41 -0.48% -0.22% +0.24% -0.01% +0.02% +0.31% -0.55% -0.11% LOSS
2024-08-21 09:27:16 $55.05 +0.16% -0.25% -0.02% +0.07% +0.55% +0.71% -0.31% +0.13% WIN
2024-08-14 09:25:15 $52.48 -0.21% -0.21% -0.79% -0.24% -0.44% +0.21% -0.91% -0.23% LOSS
2024-08-07 09:26:57 $53.57 +0.04% -0.32% +0.05% -0.37% -1.51% +0.21% -0.09% +0.04% WIN
2024-07-30 09:26:29 $53.81 -0.50% -0.26% -0.17% +0.11% +0.56% +0.73% -0.62% -0.09% LOSS
2024-07-23 09:25:00 $54.47 +0.33% +0.20% -0.07% +0.53% +1.10% +1.32% -0.10% +0.39% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.5% Baseline on BHP

The 56.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push BHP's performance to 75%+.

Optimize BHP Strategy →

Why Analyze BHP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BHP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BHP historically offers an average upside of +1.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BHP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.5%, BHP shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show BHP performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.05%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.