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FCX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 361 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Freeport-McMoran Inc. METAL MINING (SIC 1000)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 01, 1995 🔗 www.fcx.com
💰 Market Cap: $86.74B 👥 Employees: 28,500
Freeport-McMoRan owns stakes in 10 copper mines, led by its 49% ownership of the Grasberg copper and gold operations in Indonesia, 55% of the Cerro Verde mine in Peru, and 72% of Morenci in Arizona. It sold around 1.2 million metric tons of copper (its share) in 2024, making it the one of the world's largest copper miners by volume. It also sold about 900,000 ounces of gold, mostly from Grasberg, and 70 million pounds of molybdenum. It had about 25 years of copper reserves at the end of December 2024. We expect it to sell similar amounts of copper midcycle in 2029, though we expect gold volumes to decline to about 650,000 ounces then due to falling production at Grasberg.
📊
361
Total Alerts
🎯
47.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.01%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.71%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.49%
Avg Loser: -0.53%
Best: +3.27%
Worst: -2.01%
Trades: 166/189

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +4.49%
Worst: -3.92%
Trades: 166/195

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.1%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.15%
Best: +4.81%
Worst: -4.39%
Trades: 170/189

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.8%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -1.32%
Best: +6.42%
Worst: -4.24%
Trades: 169/190

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.76%
Avg Loser: -1.63%
Best: +9.24%
Worst: -7.43%
Trades: 172/183

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.71%
Best MFE: +9.58%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, FCX alerts reach +1.71% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.76%
Worst MAE: -5.32%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.76%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.26:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.26x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 361 alerts, FCX typically reaches +1.71% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 361
Gap Up % 46.5%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +3.27%

🏭 Sector Comparison: METAL MINING

How FCX compares to 13 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FCX: -0.05% Sector: -0.11% +0.05%
EOD Gain
FCX: +0.01% Sector: +1.60% -1.59%
Avg MFE
FCX: +1.71% Sector: +3.29% -1.58%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FCX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:34 $40.23 -0.45% +1.24% +0.37% -0.70% -1.89% +1.42% -0.65% +0.75% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:44 $37.68 -0.07% +0.08% - - -0.24% +1.43% -0.61% +0.07% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:35 $39.0 -0.41% -1.33% -0.63% -0.49% -1.38% -0.21% -0.23% -0.31% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:26:11 $38.3 +0.44% +0.99% +2.30% +1.02% -0.21% +2.32% - +0.50% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:52 $37.6 +0.21% +0.37% -0.31% -0.28% -1.20% +0.90% -0.48% -0.16% WIN
2025-02-05 09:26:53 $36.37 +0.25% +0.14% -0.10% -0.63% +0.85% +1.76% -1.10% -0.28% WIN
2025-02-04 09:28:24 $36.31 +0.29% +1.18% +0.85% +1.76% +0.47% +1.89% -0.77% -0.77% WIN
2025-01-31 09:29:04 $36.44 -0.33% -0.51% -0.52% -0.86% -1.62% +0.55% -1.10% -0.22% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:25:43 $35.85 +0.67% +1.00% +1.72% +2.75% +1.20% +2.76% +0.11% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-27 09:28:19 $37.39 -0.86% -1.68% -1.39% -1.42% -1.93% +0.03% -0.83% -0.47% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:36 $38.08 -0.45% -3.92% -3.94% -3.18% +1.10% +1.63% -4.25% +0.08% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:29:34 $40.5 -0.70% -1.28% -2.02% -2.17% -3.75% +0.35% -0.25% - LOSS
2025-01-07 09:27:46 $38.76 +0.59% -0.25% +0.26% +0.70% -0.05% +1.05% -0.91% +0.18% WIN
2025-01-06 09:28:01 $38.7 +0.75% +2.00% +2.16% +2.08% -0.34% +2.74% +0.26% +0.34% WIN
2024-12-10 09:28:34 $43.65 -0.32% -1.15% -1.49% -1.68% -2.25% +0.16% -0.62% -0.25% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:25:12 $43.84 +0.64% +0.76% +1.46% +1.23% -0.25% +2.08% -0.27% -0.21% WIN
2024-12-03 09:28:49 $44.5 -0.06% -1.20% -1.19% -1.61% -1.51% +0.74% - +0.36% LOSS
2024-11-18 09:26:26 $43.15 -0.32% -0.46% -1.36% -0.58% +0.93% +1.16% -1.38% -0.27% LOSS
2024-11-15 09:29:53 $43.54 -0.17% +0.20% -0.21% -0.60% -1.93% +0.64% -0.41% -0.09% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:25:08 $43.51 -0.31% -0.98% -1.03% -0.82% -0.55% +0.46% -0.16% -0.09% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 47.8% Baseline on FCX

The 47.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push FCX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize FCX Strategy →

Why Analyze FCX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FCX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FCX historically offers an average upside of +1.71% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FCX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.8%, FCX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show FCX performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.