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TCOM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 157 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-12 → 2025-02-10

🏢 Company Profile

Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 09, 2003 🔗 www.group.trip.com
💰 Market Cap: $41.81B 👥 Employees: 41,073
Trip.com is the largest online travel agent in China and is positioned to benefit from the country's rising demand for higher-margin outbound travel as passport penetration is only 12% in China. The company generated about 79% of sales from accommodation reservations and transportation ticketing in 2024. The rest of revenue comes from package tours and corporate travel. Before the pandemic in 2019, the company generated 25% of revenue from international travel, which is important to its margin expansion. Most of sales come from its domestic platform, but the company is expanding its overseas business. The competes in a crowded OTA industry in China, including Meituan, Alibaba-backed Fliggy, Tongcheng, and Qunar. The company was founded in 1999 and listed on the Nasdaq in December 2003.
📊
157
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.01%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.20%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +5.14%
Worst: -6.76%
Trades: 83/72

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.7%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.35%
Best: +4.91%
Worst: -9.39%
Trades: 78/79

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.5%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -1.52%
Best: +4.77%
Worst: -7.92%
Trades: 73/81

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.3%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.78%
Avg Loser: -1.70%
Best: +12.53%
Worst: -8.43%
Trades: 79/77

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +2.10%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +13.91%
Worst: -6.19%
Trades: 75/81

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.20%
Best MFE: +16.10%
Avg Time to MFE: 96 min

On average, TCOM alerts reach +2.20% profit potential within 96 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.05%
Worst MAE: -16.87%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.05%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.1:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.1x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 157 alerts, TCOM typically reaches +2.20% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 157
Gap Up % 35.7%
Avg Gap -0.15%
Best Gap +2.16%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TCOM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:29:52 $70.12 -2.37% -1.59% -2.35% -1.43% -2.47% +0.19% -1.18% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:27:39 $63.86 +0.77% +0.34% -0.13% -0.16% -0.23% +1.03% -0.44% -0.36% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:19 $67.5 -0.16% -0.53% -0.86% -1.06% -3.20% +0.53% -0.50% +0.28% LOSS
2024-12-27 09:27:59 $71.93 -0.55% -0.88% -1.11% -1.47% -1.86% -0.17% -0.17% -0.63% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:26:30 $74.26 +1.93% +2.87% +2.85% +1.71% +1.08% +3.93% -0.34% +0.59% WIN
2024-11-20 09:25:28 $63.95 +0.28% +1.95% +1.58% +1.34% +1.31% +2.24% -0.09% +0.08% WIN
2024-11-13 09:26:28 $62.79 -1.10% -1.54% -1.78% -1.59% -1.13% +0.13% -1.19% -0.14% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:29:35 $67.02 -1.40% -0.69% -0.48% +0.46% +0.06% +0.87% -1.95% +0.25% LOSS
2024-10-18 09:29:53 $62.5 -1.65% -1.98% -2.03% -1.57% -2.00% +0.22% -0.64% +0.02% LOSS
2024-10-14 09:28:30 $64.52 +0.19% +0.31% +0.50% +0.57% -1.36% +1.13% -0.91% -0.70% WIN
2024-10-10 09:26:42 $65.0 -0.14% -1.17% -0.54% -0.26% -1.82% +0.94% -0.42% -0.15% LOSS
2024-10-08 09:25:58 $62.5 -0.14% +1.06% -0.21% +0.68% -1.63% +2.37% -0.75% +0.35% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:28:50 $69.5 -1.37% -0.52% -1.21% -1.21% -1.54% +0.24% -0.99% -0.12% LOSS
2024-10-03 09:29:05 $63.59 +1.69% +2.02% +2.97% +3.03% +1.64% +3.37% -0.02% +0.11% WIN
2024-10-02 09:29:09 $65.65 -0.76% -1.80% -1.55% -2.19% +1.93% +2.09% -2.47% -0.15% LOSS
2024-10-01 09:27:28 $59.8 +0.46% +0.28% +1.18% -0.23% +4.53% +4.57% -0.45% -0.02% WIN
2024-09-30 09:27:26 $63.35 -2.48% -2.78% -1.33% -1.59% -6.19% +0.82% -2.65% +0.55% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:29:36 $58.02 +2.33% +2.96% +3.17% +3.15% +5.69% +6.27% -0.53% - WIN
2024-09-26 09:28:47 $54.46 +3.16% +1.95% +1.70% +1.71% +4.08% +4.65% -0.20% +0.62% WIN
2024-09-25 09:25:07 $50.5 +0.60% +0.49% +0.94% +0.95% +1.15% +2.12% -0.16% +0.85% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 52.9% Baseline on TCOM

The 52.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TCOM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TCOM Strategy →

Why Analyze TCOM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TCOM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TCOM historically offers an average upside of +2.20% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TCOM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, TCOM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TCOM performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.