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BABA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 758 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares, each represents eight Ordinary Shares
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 19, 2014 🔗 www.alibabagroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $409.12B 👥 Employees: 126,661
Alibaba is the world's largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume. It operates China's online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). The China retail e-commerce platform is the most valuable cash flow-generating business at Alibaba. Additional revenue sources include China wholesale e-commerce, international retail and wholesale e-commerce, local consumer services, travel services, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment, Cainiao logistics services, and other businesses.
📊
758
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.57%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.44%
Avg Loser: -0.52%
Best: +2.38%
Worst: -3.31%
Trades: 361/392

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.8%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -0.91%
Best: +4.54%
Worst: -5.17%
Trades: 354/399

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +6.93%
Worst: -5.50%
Trades: 373/380

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +9.28%
Worst: -8.26%
Trades: 361/394

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.54%
Avg Loser: -1.50%
Best: +13.68%
Worst: -9.51%
Trades: 371/384

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.57%
Best MFE: +14.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 106 min

On average, BABA alerts reach +1.57% profit potential within 106 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.64%
Worst MAE: -6.81%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.64%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.45:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.45x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 758 alerts, BABA typically reaches +1.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 758
Gap Up % 44.5%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +2.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BABA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:06 $125.87 -1.14% -1.67% -0.57% -2.84% -0.91% +0.74% -0.53% +0.57% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:25:16 $115.99 -0.59% +0.16% +1.53% +1.44% +3.06% +3.09% -1.06% -0.57% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:14 $116.06 +0.41% +0.76% +0.51% +0.90% +1.96% +3.23% -0.94% -0.21% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:08 $114.34 -1.79% -1.24% -0.43% -0.40% -1.36% +1.05% -2.92% -0.33% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:55 $107.79 -0.14% -0.15% +0.11% +2.17% +3.27% +3.58% -1.01% -0.44% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:17 $104.5 +1.69% +1.56% +2.34% +1.64% -0.95% +2.88% -0.29% -0.04% WIN
2025-02-06 09:25:50 $101.06 -0.13% -0.69% -0.31% -0.09% -0.67% +0.67% -0.97% +0.19% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:52 $100.28 -0.53% +0.97% +0.92% +0.10% -1.00% +1.54% -0.59% -0.11% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:28:33 $100.58 -0.03% -0.28% +0.33% +1.57% +1.76% +3.01% -0.89% +0.01% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:49 $96.1 +1.22% +3.70% +3.50% +5.27% +2.61% +6.00% -0.09% +0.42% WIN
2025-01-31 09:27:05 $101.99 -0.36% -1.33% -0.73% -1.85% -3.09% +0.50% -0.36% +0.01% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:29:17 $96.95 +0.55% +1.16% +1.61% +2.74% +5.97% +6.93% +0.20% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-29 09:25:34 $98.96 -0.03% -0.29% -1.49% +0.90% -2.26% +2.34% -2.54% +0.43% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:25:48 $90.55 +0.78% -0.19% +0.27% +0.21% +6.05% +6.49% -0.72% +0.43% WIN
2025-01-27 09:27:31 $90.8 +0.11% -1.29% -1.40% -1.08% -0.89% +0.69% -1.74% -0.23% WIN
2025-01-24 09:27:37 $87.17 -0.61% -0.32% -0.72% -0.10% +2.26% +2.32% -0.79% -0.53% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:28:48 $85.57 -0.33% -0.46% -0.37% -0.26% +0.62% +0.74% -0.71% +0.27% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:27:58 $84.94 -0.24% -0.38% +0.33% +0.71% +1.72% +1.88% -0.61% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:40 $85.12 +0.86% +0.40% +0.32% +0.01% +0.31% +2.09% +1.89% +2.06% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:16 $82.69 +0.70% +1.54% +3.24% +2.59% +2.94% +3.51% +0.37% +0.62% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BABA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.3% win rate and -0.02% average gain, BABA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BABA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BABA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BABA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BABA historically offers an average upside of +1.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BABA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, BABA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BABA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BABA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.02%). This suggests BABA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.