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PDD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 596 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

PDD Holdings Inc. American Depositary Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 26, 2018 🔗 www.pddholdings.com
💰 Market Cap: $151.70B 👥 Employees: 23,465
PDD Holdings operates commerce businesses in over 80 countries globally. Its main operations are Pinduoduo, a social commerce platform in China, and Temu, a global e-commerce marketplace. PDD also has a community group purchase business in China. PDD has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities that support its underlying businesses.
📊
596
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.88%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +5.23%
Worst: -4.69%
Trades: 287/307

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +1.49%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +7.32%
Worst: -7.74%
Trades: 287/307

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.91%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: +7.35%
Worst: -14.47%
Trades: 290/303

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +2.22%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +11.69%
Worst: -17.95%
Trades: 290/302

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.65%
Avg Loser: -2.45%
Best: +14.79%
Worst: -13.28%
Trades: 294/302

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.72%
Best MFE: +17.83%
Avg Time to MFE: 97 min

On average, PDD alerts reach +2.72% profit potential within 97 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.08%
Worst MAE: -8.66%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.08%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.51:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.51x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 596 alerts, PDD typically reaches +2.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 596
Gap Up % 44.6%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +1.55%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PDD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:08 $125.31 -0.93% -1.62% -0.70% -1.50% -0.92% +1.15% -2.32% -0.06% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:06 $117.71 +0.97% +1.08% +1.27% +2.06% +3.25% +3.59% -0.42% -0.02% WIN
2025-02-12 09:26:41 $118.9 -1.22% -1.14% -0.38% -0.62% -0.06% +0.38% -1.50% -0.74% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:11 $113.6 -0.70% -0.13% +0.27% +2.62% +3.42% +5.19% -1.14% -0.37% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:51 $117.61 +0.32% +0.25% -0.48% +0.77% -1.08% +1.21% -0.22% +0.03% WIN
2025-02-07 09:27:46 $114.65 +0.83% -0.48% +0.63% -0.21% -0.33% +1.16% -0.74% -0.42% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:00 $112.23 -1.01% -1.15% -1.11% -0.21% +0.44% +0.61% -1.54% -0.43% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:28:29 $108.85 +1.13% +2.54% +2.85% +2.18% +1.19% +3.38% -0.06% +0.13% WIN
2025-02-04 09:25:42 $108.0 +1.13% +1.68% +2.15% +3.77% +5.60% +6.67% -0.15% -0.06% WIN
2025-02-03 09:29:32 $105.69 +1.05% +1.43% +1.54% +1.56% -0.43% +2.73% -0.84% +0.10% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:58 $113.0 -1.00% -0.96% -1.19% - -0.85% +0.63% -2.25% - LOSS
2025-01-27 09:29:41 $109.6 +0.88% -1.23% -0.94% +0.07% +1.17% +2.49% -1.37% +0.23% WIN
2025-01-24 09:27:36 $105.31 -0.21% +1.06% +0.12% +0.66% +5.73% +6.13% -0.32% +0.13% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:29:21 $104.24 -2.07% -2.17% -1.79% -0.93% -1.11% +0.24% -1.08% +0.13% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:10 $108.2 -2.49% -2.50% -2.77% -3.96% -3.74% +0.18% -0.65% -0.12% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:28:53 $99.23 -0.37% -0.28% +0.56% +0.95% +1.48% +1.77% -1.24% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:58 $99.5 +0.28% +0.21% -0.70% -1.16% -1.38% +0.45% -0.69% -0.27% WIN
2025-01-13 09:29:55 $95.02 +1.22% +0.41% +1.20% +1.59% +1.01% +2.19% -0.93% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-10 09:25:36 $98.59 -1.14% -2.72% -2.19% -2.69% -3.97% +0.01% -0.34% -0.44% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:26:12 $98.98 +0.51% -0.33% +0.85% +1.16% +1.35% +2.39% -0.38% +0.08% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 49.3% Baseline on PDD

The 49.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push PDD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize PDD Strategy →

Why Analyze PDD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PDD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PDD historically offers an average upside of +2.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PDD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, PDD shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show PDD performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.