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$IYH +0.00% — what the base rate says

$IYH +0.00% — what the base rate says

It is Sunday afternoon, and retail traders are currently performing high-level emotional calculus on whether Fox paying $22B for Roku ($ROKU) means their calls will print on Monday. Across the street, others are staring at the Micron ($MU) chart, convinced that its 293% run-up this year makes it a guaranteed post-earnings breakout on June 24.

The market is closed, yet the anxiety is wide open. You aren't missing trades right now; you are missing preparation. The amateur spent the weekend searching for a hot take to validate their bias. The professional spent it writing down exactly what they will do if their thesis is completely wrong on Monday morning.

Plan the trade before you need the escape hatch.

Then close the spreadsheet and go make dinner.

What the data showed

  • $IYH +0.00% iShares US Healthcare ETF
  • $UNH +0.00% UnitedHealth Group Incorporated mcap $364.1B · float 905M shares · sector: HOSPITAL & MEDICAL SERVICE PLANS
  • $USO +0.00% United States Oil Fund LP ETF float 16M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $KO +0.00% The Coca-Cola Company mcap $341.6B · float 4.3B shares · sector: BEVERAGES
  • $EWU +0.00% iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF
  • $ROKU +0.00% Roku, Inc. mcap $20.5B · float 130M shares · sector: CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
  • $SONY +0.00% Sony Group Corporation mcap $119.7B · float 6.1B shares · sector: Household Audio & Video Equipment
  • $PPA +0.00% Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
  • $ITA +0.00% iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF
  • $MU +0.00% Micron Technology, Inc. mcap $1278.8B · float 1.1B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

Don't guess how high-flying tech names behave after a 200%+ run-up before earnings. Pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net to see the base rates before you take the bait on Monday. Discipline > FOMO

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