$SPCX is trading at $162, while analysts peg its actual value at $63. That is a 169% valuation premium fueled entirely by retail optimism.
Across historical IPOs with a market cap exceeding $50 billion that debuted at a >100% premium to consensus valuation, the stock underperformed the broader market by an average of 22% over the first six months. The math of gravity applies even to aerospace.
When the lockup expires on August 6, the sudden flood of insider supply meets a retail bid that is already exhausted from holding the highs.
Study the supply schedule on Sunday so you do not buy the top on Monday.