$MSFT seeking alpha Aug 02, 2026

$MSFT +0.00% — what the base rate says

The Boss FILTRIX Market Desk

Sunday afternoon is when the weekend warriors construct elaborate mathematical proofs for why a hyped stock will double on Monday. This week, the crowd is obsessing over the upcoming $SPCX earnings debut on August 4, dreaming of a 68% year-over-year revenue moonshot. They conveniently overlook the August 6 insider lockup unlock just two days later. Statistically, newly public giants underperform their market index by an average of 4% over three years, with heavy pressure concentrated right at the lockup expiration. The crowd is already mapping out their imaginary profits. Historical IPOs underperform by 4% over three years. That's the post.

What the data showed

$MSFT +0.00% Microsoft Corporation mcap $3349.7B · float 7.3B shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$META +0.00% Meta Platforms, Inc. mcap $1373.2B · float 2.2B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$GOOG +0.00% Alphabet Inc. mcap $4080.9B · float 5.1B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$VZ +0.00% Verizon Communications Inc. mcap $192.5B · float 4.2B shares · sector: TELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS (NO RADIOTELEPHONE)
$EEM +0.00% iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
$TGT +0.00% Target Corporation mcap $65.6B · float 452M shares · sector: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
$XLP +0.00% State Street Consumer Staples Sel Sect SPDR ETF
$SPCX +0.00% Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
$XLK +0.00% State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
$MKTX +0.00% MarketAxess Holdings Inc.

Map out the historical lockup behavior of mega-IPOs on FILTRIX.net before chasing Monday's pre-market hype. Discipline > FOMO

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