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TGT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 91 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-02-03

⚠️ Small sample size (91 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 corporate.target.com
💰 Market Cap: $48.95B 👥 Employees: 440,000
Target's start dates back to 1962, but now it is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States (where it derives all of its sales), operating just under 2,000 stores and generating over $106 billion in fiscal 2024 sales. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise across categories including apparel and accessories (16% of fiscal 2024 revenue), beauty and household essentials (30%), food and beverage (23%), hardlines (15%), as well as home furnishings (16%). Target's model is anchored in its physical store base, which fulfills more than 97% of sales. Around 30% of sales are derived from its own private-label brands.
📊
91
Total Alerts
🎯
58.2%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.11%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.58%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.1%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +2.00%
Worst: -2.50%
Trades: 41/48

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.5%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +3.43%
Worst: -3.46%
Trades: 46/45

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -0.97%
Best: +4.59%
Worst: -4.83%
Trades: 47/44

60MIN

Win Rate: 58.2%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: -1.29%
Best: +5.32%
Worst: -4.44%
Trades: 53/38

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -1.55%
Best: +5.63%
Worst: -5.17%
Trades: 44/47

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.58%
Best MFE: +6.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 107 min

On average, TGT alerts reach +1.58% profit potential within 107 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -2.69%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 91 alerts, TGT typically reaches +1.58% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 91
Gap Up % 44.0%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +0.88%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

How TGT compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TGT: -0.01% Sector: +0.00% -0.01%
EOD Gain
TGT: +0.07% Sector: -7.17% +7.24%
Avg MFE
TGT: +1.58% Sector: +1.47% +0.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TGT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-03 09:26:41 $134.0 +0.60% -0.54% -0.87% +0.36% +0.12% +1.08% -1.43% +0.43% WIN
2025-01-22 09:26:49 $137.5 -1.28% -0.41% -0.68% -1.09% -1.26% -0.01% -0.02% -0.23% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:27:09 $129.76 +1.16% +0.49% -0.56% +0.15% +2.69% +3.09% -1.42% -0.96% WIN
2024-11-26 09:27:09 $129.96 -1.04% -1.28% -1.57% -2.07% -2.62% - -0.51% -0.51% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:26:31 $127.8 +0.63% +1.73% +1.74% +1.39% +2.14% +3.22% -0.23% +0.21% WIN
2024-11-22 09:28:47 $122.2 +0.65% +1.47% +1.07% +2.52% +2.30% +2.91% -0.77% -0.41% WIN
2024-11-21 09:25:11 $122.26 -0.22% +0.05% +0.95% +0.49% -0.55% +1.50% -0.31% -0.14% LOSS
2024-11-20 09:28:14 $127.23 -0.27% -3.46% -4.83% -3.05% -4.33% +1.44% -0.10% +0.61% LOSS
2024-10-23 09:25:23 $149.2 -0.89% -0.67% -0.14% -0.58% -0.77% +0.13% -1.14% -0.58% LOSS
2024-10-08 09:29:07 $149.0 - +0.35% +0.38% +0.17% +1.56% +1.87% -0.13% -0.01% -
2024-10-03 09:27:04 $150.41 -0.86% -1.04% -1.60% -1.64% -0.54% -0.27% -0.27% -0.35% LOSS
2024-09-19 09:25:45 $155.49 +0.87% -0.08% +0.18% -0.02% +0.64% +1.22% -0.32% +0.70% WIN
2024-09-09 09:28:01 $151.5 +0.34% +0.43% +0.40% +0.78% -0.60% +0.94% -0.09% -0.09% WIN
2024-09-03 09:28:16 $153.59 +0.62% +0.37% +0.69% +0.29% -1.17% +0.89% -0.39% -0.39% WIN
2024-08-27 09:29:55 $159.02 -0.41% -0.37% -0.57% -0.12% -0.21% +0.47% -0.79% -0.08% LOSS
2024-08-26 09:27:21 $158.98 +1.71% +0.51% +0.51% +0.36% -0.05% +1.80% +0.13% +0.21% WIN
2024-08-21 09:27:05 $166.2 -0.54% +0.05% -1.72% -1.65% -4.18% +0.82% -0.06% +0.68% LOSS
2024-08-15 09:26:18 $142.29 -0.08% +0.29% -0.04% -0.74% -0.44% +1.12% -0.06% +0.70% LOSS
2024-08-14 09:26:56 $136.13 +0.39% +0.04% +0.14% +0.08% -0.27% +0.57% +0.31% +0.42% WIN
2024-05-22 09:25:07 $141.3 -0.72% +0.99% +0.70% +1.42% +1.39% +3.09% -0.93% -0.54% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.2% Baseline on TGT

The 58.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TGT's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TGT Strategy →

Why Analyze TGT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TGT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TGT historically offers an average upside of +1.58% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TGT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.2%, TGT shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TGT performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.11%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.