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$UMAC +25.04% — what the base rate says

$UMAC +25.04% — what the base rate says

Sunday afternoon is when retail traders build their Monday watchlists using Twitter hype and weekend green spikes. They see $UMAC floating up +25.04% on absolute zero catalyst and construct a bull thesis around thin air. The historical database from 4,898 no-news gap setups shows these names close red 62% of the time. Flip side: fundamental gravity exists. $BRFH dropped -20.65% after printing Q2 earnings, while $NRDY announced a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to keep its listing alive. Amateurs look for volatility to chase; professionals look for statistical base rates to fade. What filter eliminates 90% of the junk on your Sunday watchlist?

What the data showed

  • $UMAC +25.04% Unusual Machines, Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=4,898) mcap $1.4B · float 45M shares · sector: RADIO & TV BROADCASTING & COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT
  • $AAOI +16.37% Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · closed red 60% · green 39% (n=7,131) mcap $11.7B · float 77M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $DSX +10.53% Diana Shipping Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $334M · float 115M shares
  • $SNDK +8.43% Sandisk Corporation mcap $196.3B · float 146M shares · sector: COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES
  • $OPTU +7.85% Optimum Communications, Inc. mcap $227M · float 255M shares · sector: CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
  • $AMD +6.79% Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. mcap $788.4B · float 1.6B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $STX +5.71% Seagate Technology Holdings plc mcap $199.0B · float 217M shares · sector: COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES
  • $WDC +4.25% Western Digital Corporation mcap $156.5B · float 336M shares · sector: COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES
  • $AEM +3.87% Agnico Eagle Mines Limited mcap $94.4B · float 500M shares · sector: Gold and Silver Ores
  • $VIST +3.20% Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. mcap $7.0B · float 75M shares
  • $BRFH -20.65% Barfresh Food Group, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $29M · float 5M shares · sector: CANNED, FROZEN & PRESERVD FRUIT, VEG & FOOD SPECIALTIES
  • $MSGM -10.49% Motorsport Games Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $18M · float 2M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $SIDU -6.69% Sidus Space, Inc. mcap $253M · float 101M shares · sector: RADIOTELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS
  • $TOMZ -6.42% TOMI Environmental Solutions, Inc. mcap $13M · float 15M shares · sector: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS
  • $STNE -6.16% StoneCo Ltd. mcap $2.5B · float 238M shares
  • $HSDT -5.32% Solana Company mcap $102M · float 80M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES
  • $LFT -5.11% Lument Finance Trust, Inc.
  • $TWLO -4.90% Twilio Inc. mcap $37.9B · float 151M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $NRDY -4.76% Nerdy Inc. mcap $94M · float 44M shares · sector: SERVICES-EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
  • $WDAY -3.89% Workday, Inc. mcap $43.3B · float 206M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

Run the historical numbers on FILTRIX.net before you add unbacked momentum gaps to your Monday watchlist. Check the base rates across thousands of past catalysts before risking capital on the open. Discipline > FOMO

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