FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

UMAC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 34 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-03-11 → 2025-02-03

⚠️ Small sample size (34 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE American 📅 IPO: Feb 14, 2024 🔗 www.unusualmachines.com
💰 Market Cap: $636.4M 👥 Employees: 38
Unusual Machines Inc is engaged in serving the American drone industry by building and selling drone components.
📊
34
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+10.46%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +3.53%
Avg Loser: -2.69%
Best: +18.91%
Worst: -9.27%
Trades: 12/21

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.1%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +5.02%
Avg Loser: -4.21%
Best: +12.90%
Worst: -9.40%
Trades: 16/18

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +4.28%
Avg Loser: -5.02%
Best: +12.28%
Worst: -10.75%
Trades: 18/16

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.05%
Avg Winner: +5.18%
Avg Loser: -7.29%
Best: +15.18%
Worst: -31.59%
Trades: 17/17

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -1.65%
Avg Winner: +10.88%
Avg Loser: -10.42%
Best: +36.22%
Worst: -40.05%
Trades: 14/20

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +10.46%
Best MFE: +44.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 103 min

On average, UMAC alerts reach +10.46% profit potential within 103 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.07%
Worst MAE: -15.30%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.07%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.57:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.57x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 34 alerts, UMAC typically reaches +10.46% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 8.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 34
Gap Up % 44.1%
Avg Gap -0.33%
Best Gap +3.65%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RADIO & TV BROADCASTING & COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT

How UMAC compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UMAC: -0.43% Sector: -0.25% -0.17%
EOD Gain
UMAC: -1.63% Sector: +37.08% -38.71%
Avg MFE
UMAC: +10.32% Sector: +4.58% +5.74%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UMAC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-03 09:25:44 $11.09 -1.04% +0.23% +1.26% +1.26% +8.21% +11.18% -3.48% +0.09% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:13 $12.69 +0.91% -0.47% +2.05% +0.55% -4.89% +2.21% -1.18% +1.18% WIN
2025-01-22 09:25:00 $14.95 +1.54% -2.28% -4.62% -3.44% -3.01% +2.21% -0.33% +1.20% WIN
2025-01-21 09:25:08 $13.5 +0.40% -1.30% +2.96% -2.96% +9.33% +10.56% -3.63% +0.74% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:30 $13.9 -3.24% -0.65% +2.84% +3.02% -6.83% +5.76% -5.10% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:28:18 $12.8 -2.72% +0.86% +1.48% +3.91% +1.48% +5.86% -3.91% -3.12% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:27:33 $11.77 -2.21% +1.28% +3.98% +6.20% +1.87% +7.81% -2.29% -0.42% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:29:28 $12.71 +3.46% +3.62% +5.23% +7.41% +2.28% +9.94% - +1.02% WIN
2025-01-08 09:27:10 $13.95 -3.01% -8.24% -10.75% -9.03% -11.25% - -1.79% - LOSS
2025-01-06 09:28:18 $16.66 +0.06% +3.75% +0.54% +2.04% -1.20% +4.56% -1.74% +0.24% WIN
2025-01-03 09:27:32 $16.44 +1.03% +4.32% +3.98% -0.62% +1.46% +6.45% -2.68% -0.24% WIN
2025-01-02 09:25:40 $16.73 -3.38% -6.01% -1.49% -4.21% -4.78% +1.61% +0.42% +0.48% LOSS
2024-12-31 09:27:29 $19.4 -2.99% -8.20% -5.15% -6.84% -13.30% - -0.46% -2.22% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:29:54 $16.55 -1.40% -5.29% -4.77% -1.81% +16.68% +30.82% -8.16% -0.06% LOSS
2024-12-27 09:29:11 $18.31 +0.02% +4.00% +1.32% -7.45% -7.32% +5.95% -2.84% -0.71% WIN
2024-12-26 09:25:08 $15.16 +2.74% +12.56% +10.82% +12.80% +15.70% +18.47% -0.13% +2.11% WIN
2024-12-24 09:27:15 $14.94 -2.75% +1.61% +5.89% +6.43% -2.34% +9.04% -4.28% -1.94% LOSS
2024-12-23 09:27:43 $12.98 -5.50% -4.16% +6.42% +0.62% +20.03% +22.80% -10.40% -2.85% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:26:27 $10.62 -0.80% -0.61% +2.54% +7.63% +18.74% +21.85% -3.95% -2.35% LOSS
2024-12-19 09:27:16 $12.29 -1.55% -3.51% -7.28% -12.89% -14.16% +1.71% -3.17% -0.65% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UMAC Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.9% win rate, UMAC has -0.10% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UMAC profitable.

🔧 Fix UMAC Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze UMAC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UMAC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UMAC historically offers an average upside of +10.46% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UMAC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, UMAC shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-5.02%) outweigh average wins (+4.28%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UMAC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.10%). This suggests UMAC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.