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TWLO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 106 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-09 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 23, 2016 🔗 www.twilio.com
💰 Market Cap: $19.45B 👥 Employees: 5,535
Twilio is a cloud-based communications platform-as-a-service company offering communication building blocks that allow for a fully customized customer engagement experience spanning voice, video, chat, and SMS messaging. It does this through various application programming interfaces and prebuilt solution applications aimed at improving customer engagement. The company leverages its Super Network, a global network of carrier relationships, to facilitate high-speed, cost-effective communication.
📊
106
Total Alerts
🎯
48.1%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.17%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.0%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -0.90%
Best: +3.24%
Worst: -4.37%
Trades: 41/62

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.0%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.58%
Avg Loser: -1.60%
Best: +4.43%
Worst: -10.07%
Trades: 43/62

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.6%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.88%
Avg Loser: -2.07%
Best: +6.46%
Worst: -10.60%
Trades: 50/55

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +2.32%
Avg Loser: -2.30%
Best: +7.65%
Worst: -12.53%
Trades: 48/57

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +3.12%
Avg Loser: -3.22%
Best: +11.50%
Worst: -13.25%
Trades: 51/55

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.89%
Best MFE: +12.01%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, TWLO alerts reach +2.89% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.10%
Worst MAE: -4.35%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.10%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.62:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.62x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 106 alerts, TWLO typically reaches +2.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 106
Gap Up % 37.7%
Avg Gap -0.17%
Best Gap +1.72%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How TWLO compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TWLO: -0.19% Sector: -0.09% -0.10%
EOD Gain
TWLO: -0.16% Sector: +73.64% -73.80%
Avg MFE
TWLO: +2.88% Sector: +4.32% -1.45%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TWLO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:58 $133.51 -4.37% -8.10% -6.86% -7.73% -6.25% +1.12% -1.68% -1.24% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:26:32 $147.92 -0.79% -0.52% -1.01% -0.45% -1.53% +0.26% -1.57% -0.28% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:27:20 $146.38 -0.53% -1.36% -0.77% -0.81% -0.19% +1.03% -2.00% -0.36% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:22 $135.4 +1.42% +1.44% +3.09% +3.15% +2.65% +5.10% +0.03% +0.31% WIN
2025-01-24 09:28:00 $137.37 +1.22% -2.05% +0.77% -0.80% -0.83% +2.93% -2.81% +0.12% WIN
2024-10-31 09:26:35 $82.0 -2.24% -0.97% +1.01% -2.43% -1.65% +1.59% -3.52% -1.83% LOSS
2024-05-08 09:29:55 $59.8 -0.29% -0.44% -0.22% +0.75% -1.97% +1.24% -1.52% +0.65% LOSS
2024-03-06 09:29:29 $57.55 +0.09% -1.14% -1.27% -1.09% +1.75% +1.79% -1.74% +0.03% WIN
2024-03-05 09:27:25 $58.89 -0.75% -2.31% -2.56% -4.63% -3.79% +0.53% -0.49% +0.20% LOSS
2024-02-22 09:26:43 $57.04 -0.91% -0.35% -0.75% -1.30% -0.91% +0.94% -0.02% +0.63% LOSS
2024-02-21 09:26:23 $55.81 +0.18% +0.99% +0.39% -0.27% +0.79% +1.42% -0.43% -0.18% WIN
2024-02-16 09:27:48 $60.9 -1.15% -0.80% -2.14% -2.88% -3.79% +0.26% -2.02% -0.39% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:29:28 $63.01 +1.27% -1.21% -1.50% -1.17% -2.95% +2.98% -0.02% +0.14% WIN
2024-02-14 09:26:26 $69.68 -0.86% -0.82% -0.48% +1.49% +3.72% +4.19% -1.19% -0.62% LOSS
2024-02-13 09:29:32 $69.19 -0.17% -0.32% +0.22% +0.59% +0.16% +1.56% -1.92% -1.00% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $71.7 - - - - -1.76% +4.48% -0.73% +0.10% -
2023-11-28 09:28:00 $63.78 +0.31% -1.36% -0.97% +0.97% +2.07% +3.05% -1.76% -0.36% WIN
2023-11-14 09:27:00 $59.97 - +1.23% +1.41% +0.73% +2.72% +2.77% -0.68% -0.12% -
2023-11-10 09:26:00 $56.25 -0.39% +1.17% +2.58% +2.92% +4.60% +4.62% -1.01% -0.18% LOSS
2023-11-09 09:28:00 $58.35 -0.60% +2.15% +0.69% -0.24% -4.03% +3.24% -2.31% -1.95% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TWLO Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.1% win rate and -0.17% average gain, TWLO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TWLO for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TWLO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TWLO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TWLO historically offers an average upside of +2.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TWLO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.1%, TWLO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TWLO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TWLO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.17%). This suggests TWLO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.