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AAOI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 58 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-09-16 → 2025-01-27

⚠️ Small sample size (58 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES (SIC 3674)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 26, 2013 🔗 www.ao-inc.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.44B 👥 Employees: 3,309
Applied Optoelectronics Inc is a provider of fiber-optic networking products, for four networking end-markets; internet data center, CATV, telecom, and FTTH. The Company designs and manufactures a wide range of optical communications products at varying levels of integration, from components, subassemblies, and modules to complete turn-key equipment. Through direct sales personnel, and manufacturing teams in the United States, China, and Taiwan, the company coordinates with customers to determine product design, qualifications, and performance. The Company has manufacturing and research and development facilities located in the U.S., Taiwan, and China.
📊
58
Total Alerts
🎯
62.1%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+1.65%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+8.69%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.2%
Avg Gain: +0.70%
Avg Winner: +2.73%
Avg Loser: -1.96%
Best: +8.59%
Worst: -5.59%
Trades: 32/24

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.7%
Avg Gain: +1.07%
Avg Winner: +4.49%
Avg Loser: -2.59%
Best: +16.78%
Worst: -9.32%
Trades: 30/28

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.4%
Avg Gain: +1.01%
Avg Winner: +4.87%
Avg Loser: -3.41%
Best: +19.02%
Worst: -12.22%
Trades: 31/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: +0.72%
Avg Winner: +7.06%
Avg Loser: -4.07%
Best: +16.78%
Worst: -17.53%
Trades: 25/33

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.1%
Avg Gain: +1.65%
Avg Winner: +7.24%
Avg Loser: -7.49%
Best: +46.26%
Worst: -18.57%
Trades: 36/22

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.69%
Best MFE: +46.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 102 min

On average, AAOI alerts reach +8.69% profit potential within 102 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.42%
Worst MAE: -8.13%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.59:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.59x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 58 alerts, AAOI typically reaches +8.69% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 58
Gap Up % 37.9%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +2.74%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How AAOI compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AAOI: +0.70% Sector: -0.04% +0.74%
EOD Gain
AAOI: +1.65% Sector: +13404.08% -13402.43%
Avg MFE
AAOI: +8.69% Sector: +2.71% +5.99%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AAOI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-27 09:27:22 $28.38 +0.18% -1.83% +0.30% -3.24% -13.53% +4.72% +0.10% +0.70% WIN
2025-01-22 09:29:23 $31.01 +6.80% +6.87% +4.80% +2.26% +7.38% +10.29% -0.35% +0.16% WIN
2025-01-21 09:27:28 $33.09 +5.12% +4.74% -1.54% -2.27% -8.88% +7.08% -0.21% +0.36% WIN
2024-12-19 09:28:46 $35.01 +2.10% +1.76% -1.87% -6.40% -7.48% +4.13% -1.31% -0.31% WIN
2024-12-10 09:28:26 $33.0 -3.58% +5.03% +4.89% +7.61% +0.27% +9.36% -4.21% +2.55% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:28:17 $37.69 -0.45% +2.26% +5.47% +8.52% +3.16% +9.55% -3.56% -0.64% LOSS
2024-12-04 09:28:08 $41.75 -2.25% -4.10% +0.22% +5.88% +5.46% +6.59% -4.98% -0.36% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:29:14 $43.14 +0.43% -0.65% -3.78% -0.02% -5.56% +1.72% -0.90% -0.60% WIN
2024-11-21 09:29:38 $37.0 +2.77% +0.49% -1.14% -5.30% -4.05% +5.03% -0.54% -0.03% WIN
2024-11-11 09:27:47 $28.04 -5.33% -5.74% -1.87% -2.00% +0.89% +2.35% -8.13% -0.68% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:25:21 $18.98 +1.16% +9.38% +19.02% +16.78% +46.26% +46.50% -1.84% +2.74% WIN
2024-10-14 09:25:17 $18.74 -0.99% -2.24% -0.75% -0.75% -1.71% +3.84% -3.42% -1.28% LOSS
2024-09-03 09:26:47 $11.9 +3.28% +0.84% +5.71% +5.29% +3.03% +7.14% -0.08% +0.84% WIN
2024-05-10 09:28:40 $10.01 +8.59% +16.78% +8.59% +9.69% +2.10% +18.48% -2.00% +1.90% WIN
2024-04-10 09:26:46 $11.66 +1.63% +3.34% +4.37% +3.64% +0.77% +4.67% -0.51% +1.97% WIN
2024-03-14 09:26:06 $13.5 -0.74% -0.26% +0.52% -0.52% -4.30% +1.19% -0.59% +0.37% LOSS
2024-02-27 09:29:41 $15.21 -0.46% -2.87% -2.17% +0.89% +1.38% +5.06% -3.68% -0.39% LOSS
2024-02-23 09:27:03 $13.51 +1.55% -2.07% -1.60% -8.66% +4.74% +8.66% -1.18% +1.70% WIN
2024-02-22 09:25:38 $20.08 +0.95% -2.84% -0.50% -0.90% +1.34% +3.94% -4.13% -0.55% WIN
2024-02-20 09:25:55 $20.95 +1.00% -4.34% -4.34% -7.30% -5.35% +1.86% -1.72% -1.10% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.1% Baseline on AAOI

The 62.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AAOI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AAOI Strategy →

Why Analyze AAOI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AAOI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AAOI historically offers an average upside of +8.69% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AAOI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.1%, AAOI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AAOI performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.65%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.