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$PRQR +7.21% — what the base rate says

$PRQR +7.21% — what the base rate says

The instinct to buy the sharpest red candle on your screen is how retail builds its heaviest bags.

Take $WOLF, shedding -16.8% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings. The retail thesis is always identical: 'It's oversold, the bad news is priced in, a midday bounce is guaranteed.'

The actual historical base rate tells a different story. In 323 historical instances of stocks gapping down 15% or more on earnings, the setup closes red 53% of the time, bleeding an additional average intraday drift of -0.91%. Mean reversion is a statistical law, not a morning guarantee.

The math says patience beats hero trades every single session.

What the data showed

  • $PRQR +7.21% ProQR Therapeutics N.V. mcap $170M · float 103M shares
  • $NDSN +6.86% Nordson Corporation mcap $17.3B · float 52M shares · sector: GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT, NEC
  • $COIN +6.49% Coinbase Global, Inc. mcap $39.7B · float 215M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES
  • $USAU +5.30% U.S. Gold Corp. mcap $245M · float 8M shares · sector: METAL MINING
  • $UCO +3.56% ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $NMM +3.43% Navios Maritime Partners L.P. Common Units mcap $2.1B · float 19M shares
  • $USO +2.72% United States Oil Fund LP ETF float 16M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $WIX +2.29% Wix.com Ltd. mcap $4.6B · float 53M shares
  • $SYY +2.12% Sysco Corporation mcap $39.2B · float 477M shares · sector: WHOLESALE-GROCERIES & RELATED PRODUCTS
  • $EQNR +1.97% Equinor ASA mcap $99.3B · float 2.6B shares · sector: Petroleum Refining
  • $WOLF -16.76% Wolfspeed, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $1.8B · float 20M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $HOV -11.25% Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $766M · float 3M shares · sector: OPERATIVE BUILDERS
  • $RERE -10.89% ATRenew Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $1.0B · float 113M shares
  • $CAPR -10.71% Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $433M · float 50M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $WMT -9.20% Walmart Inc. mcap $909.8B · float 4.4B shares · sector: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
  • $COTY -6.93% Coty Inc. mcap $2.4B · float 374M shares · sector: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS
  • $UFI -5.87% Unifi, Inc. mcap $149M · float 16M shares · sector: TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS
  • $MDB -4.31% MongoDB, Inc. mcap $35.3B · float 77M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $CRWD -4.01% CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. mcap $217.8B · float 244M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $HRI -3.30% Herc Holdings Inc. mcap $5.8B · float 32M shares · sector: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING

Run the historical gap-down odds on FILTRIX.net before you attempt to catch a falling earnings knife. Discipline > FOMO

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