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WMT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 160 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-13 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Walmart Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-VARIETY STORES (SIC 5331)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 01, 1970 🔗 stock.walmart.com
💰 Market Cap: $938.33B 👥 Employees: 2,100,000
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
📊
160
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.04%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+0.95%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.1%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.35%
Avg Loser: -0.33%
Best: +1.60%
Worst: -1.50%
Trades: 85/75

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +2.47%
Worst: -1.73%
Trades: 86/74

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.5%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.58%
Best: +2.69%
Worst: -2.13%
Trades: 84/76

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.69%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +3.18%
Worst: -2.32%
Trades: 80/80

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -19.46%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -34.16%
Best: +3.70%
Worst: -67.65%
Trades: 66/93

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.95%
Best MFE: +4.03%
Avg Time to MFE: 136 min

On average, WMT alerts reach +0.95% profit potential within 136 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.33%
Worst MAE: -1.86%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.33%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.87:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.87x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 160 alerts, WMT typically reaches +0.95% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 160
Gap Up % 52.5%
Avg Gap +0.03%
Best Gap +1.52%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

How WMT compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
WMT: +0.03% Sector: +0.00% +0.03%
EOD Gain
WMT: -19.46% Sector: -7.17% -12.29%
Avg MFE
WMT: +0.95% Sector: +1.47% -0.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical WMT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:04 $105.29 -0.28% -0.85% -1.22% -0.62% -1.19% +0.01% -0.42% +0.01% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:25:33 $102.89 +0.05% -0.23% -0.73% -0.73% -0.04% +0.13% -0.44% -0.35% WIN
2025-02-03 09:26:05 $95.99 +1.33% +2.26% +2.43% +2.63% +3.70% +3.96% +0.03% +0.81% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:33 $95.29 +0.14% -0.06% -0.05% -0.19% +2.21% +2.28% -0.49% +0.64% WIN
2025-01-24 09:26:06 $93.88 +0.17% +0.40% +0.23% +0.71% +0.94% +1.20% -0.45% -0.36% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:01 $93.25 +0.15% +0.49% +0.09% -0.17% -0.02% +0.80% +0.35% +0.56% WIN
2025-01-14 09:27:59 $91.16 +0.57% +0.75% +0.41% +0.48% -0.41% +0.90% +0.32% +0.77% WIN
2025-01-10 09:28:51 $92.02 +0.37% +1.11% +1.42% +0.75% +1.06% +1.69% - +0.51% WIN
2025-01-07 09:29:42 $91.91 -0.11% -0.42% -0.67% -1.38% -1.20% +0.03% -0.23% -0.23% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:28:28 $90.89 -0.01% +0.28% +0.83% +0.85% +0.59% +1.74% -0.24% -0.07% LOSS
2024-12-23 09:29:24 $91.45 -0.65% -1.73% -2.10% -2.32% -1.20% +0.05% -0.69% +0.05% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:25:45 $92.72 -0.09% -0.42% -0.88% -0.13% -0.52% +1.11% -1.18% +0.31% LOSS
2024-12-19 09:26:20 $94.18 -0.15% -0.25% -0.67% -0.54% -0.83% +0.48% -0.36% +0.32% LOSS
2024-12-17 09:29:02 $94.84 +0.08% -0.41% -0.06% -0.28% +0.61% +0.69% -0.55% +0.32% WIN
2024-12-16 09:25:41 $94.21 +0.49% +0.54% +0.04% +0.20% +0.70% +1.59% -0.11% +0.22% WIN
2024-12-09 09:26:47 $95.7 +0.08% -0.94% -0.84% -1.00% -1.95% +0.25% -0.30% -0.04% WIN
2024-12-06 09:29:51 $95.56 +0.20% +0.08% +0.32% +0.54% +0.15% +0.65% -0.24% -0.02% WIN
2024-12-05 09:26:10 $94.83 -0.28% -0.28% -0.24% -0.07% +0.50% +0.81% -0.52% +0.06% LOSS
2024-12-04 09:26:53 $93.05 +0.34% +0.38% +0.20% +0.57% +1.50% +1.57% -0.10% +0.43% WIN
2024-12-02 09:29:34 $92.95 -0.31% -0.25% -0.22% -0.34% -0.33% +0.04% -0.33% -0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 53.8% Baseline on WMT

The 53.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push WMT's performance to 75%+.

Optimize WMT Strategy →

Why Analyze WMT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for WMT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, WMT historically offers an average upside of +0.95% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 WMT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, WMT shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show WMT performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.04%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.