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COTY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 29 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-21 → 2024-11-07

⚠️ Small sample size (29 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 13, 2013 🔗 www.coty.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.94B 👥 Employees: 11,636
Coty is a global beauty maker that generates 65% of sales from prestige beauty products (primarily fragrances) and 35% from mass makeup, skin care, and fragrance. For the fragrance business, Coty licenses luxury and high-end brands including Gucci, Burberry, Hugo Boss, Davidoff, and Calvin Klein. In contrast, its consumer cosmetics business focuses on acquired mass brands such as CoverGirl, Max Factor, Rimmel, Sally Hansen, and Bourjois. It also collaborates with social media celebrity Kylie Jenner to manage makeup products bearing her name. By region, Coty generates close to 48% of sales from Europe, 40% from the Americas, and 12% from Asia-Pacific. German investment firm JAB is a controlling shareholder, with a 54% stake.
📊
29
Total Alerts
🎯
58.6%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.23%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 58.6%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -1.79%
Best: +2.79%
Worst: -4.66%
Trades: 17/12

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.7%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -1.94%
Best: +4.14%
Worst: -6.92%
Trades: 15/14

30MIN

Win Rate: 58.6%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -2.91%
Best: +5.92%
Worst: -7.00%
Trades: 17/11

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.7%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.53%
Avg Loser: -2.42%
Best: +6.78%
Worst: -7.11%
Trades: 15/13

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 55.2%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +3.02%
Avg Loser: -3.14%
Best: +8.36%
Worst: -10.96%
Trades: 16/13

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.50%
Best MFE: +8.70%
Avg Time to MFE: 158 min

On average, COTY alerts reach +2.50% profit potential within 158 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.96%
Worst MAE: -4.49%
Avg Time to MAE: 21 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.96%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.59:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.59x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 29 alerts, COTY typically reaches +2.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 29
Gap Up % 58.6%
Avg Gap +0.20%
Best Gap +1.32%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS

How COTY compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
COTY: -0.23% Sector: -0.23% -0.00%
EOD Gain
COTY: +0.26% Sector: +353.74% -353.48%
Avg MFE
COTY: +2.50% Sector: +2.47% +0.02%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical COTY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-07 09:25:49 $7.28 -2.47% -0.48% -1.85% -1.30% -0.41% +2.20% -3.57% +0.14% LOSS
2024-10-31 09:25:00 $7.41 +0.34% +1.08% +1.82% +2.10% +0.40% +2.50% - +1.08% WIN
2024-10-15 09:27:48 $8.79 -4.66% -5.35% -7.00% -7.11% -6.94% +0.11% -1.25% -0.57% LOSS
2024-10-07 09:25:49 $9.42 +0.21% -0.27% +0.16% +0.32% -0.64% +1.49% -0.11% +1.27% WIN
2024-02-07 09:29:02 $12.3 -1.22% -1.83% -1.95% -1.14% -0.98% +0.41% -0.20% +0.16% LOSS
2023-12-13 09:26:00 $11.88 +0.25% +0.21% +0.25% +0.17% +2.61% +2.99% -0.76% -0.17% WIN
2023-11-01 09:26:00 $9.04 +0.77% +0.66% +0.61% +2.10% +3.10% +3.26% -0.28% +1.22% WIN
2023-10-18 09:28:00 $9.95 -0.60% -1.41% -1.61% -0.20% -1.81% +0.15% -1.81% -0.40% LOSS
2023-10-06 09:28:00 $10.19 +0.59% +0.25% - +0.15% +3.53% +4.42% -0.29% -0.10% WIN
2023-10-04 09:26:00 $10.21 +0.64% +1.03% +1.08% -0.49% +0.98% +1.52% -1.47% +0.78% WIN
2023-10-03 09:27:00 $10.76 +0.09% +0.46% +0.19% -0.51% -4.28% +0.88% -0.65% -0.56% WIN
2023-09-29 09:28:00 $11.1 +0.77% +0.41% +0.36% +0.34% -1.17% +1.35% +0.45% +0.63% WIN
2023-09-28 09:29:00 $10.99 +0.86% +0.32% +0.27% +0.23% +1.36% +1.46% -0.82% +0.09% WIN
2023-08-22 09:28:00 $10.89 -0.66% -2.16% -2.75% -1.52% -1.56% +0.73% -4.04% -0.18% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:29:00 $12.43 -4.22% -6.92% -6.36% -6.44% -5.71% +0.56% -1.45% - LOSS
2023-02-08 09:26:00 $10.27 -2.92% -2.73% -2.58% -2.68% -1.07% +0.49% +0.49% +0.29% LOSS
2023-01-17 09:27:00 $9.49 +0.84% +1.16% +0.42% +0.79% +0.32% +1.48% +0.21% +0.32% WIN
2022-09-21 09:25:00 $8.15 +1.10% +0.12% +1.78% +0.12% -1.35% +2.39% -0.61% +1.23% WIN
2022-08-25 09:25:00 $7.6 +2.79% +4.14% +5.92% +6.78% +7.50% +8.29% -0.66% +0.26% WIN
2022-07-05 09:25:00 $7.61 -0.72% -0.85% +0.33% - +4.99% +5.26% -1.45% -0.53% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ COTY Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 58.6% win rate, COTY has -0.23% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making COTY profitable.

🔧 Fix COTY Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze COTY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for COTY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, COTY historically offers an average upside of +2.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 COTY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.6%, COTY shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.79%) outweigh average wins (+0.87%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: COTY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.23%). This suggests COTY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.