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UCO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 499 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-02-13

🏢 Company Profile

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (SIC 6221)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 25, 2008
📊
499
Total Alerts
🎯
48.7%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.06%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.09%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.33%
Avg Loser: -0.35%
Best: +2.97%
Worst: -1.58%
Trades: 232/251

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.3%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +4.73%
Worst: -2.83%
Trades: 240/253

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: +6.54%
Worst: -3.77%
Trades: 239/256

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -1.15%
Best: +7.18%
Worst: -4.18%
Trades: 242/254

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -2.36%
Avg Winner: +2.09%
Avg Loser: -6.45%
Best: +10.20%
Worst: -77.56%
Trades: 237/259

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.09%
Best MFE: +10.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 144 min

On average, UCO alerts reach +2.09% profit potential within 144 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.88%
Worst MAE: -8.69%
Avg Time to MAE: 29 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.37:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.37x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 499 alerts, UCO typically reaches +2.09% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 499
Gap Up % 41.7%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +1.38%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How UCO compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UCO: -0.02% Sector: -0.01% -0.02%
EOD Gain
UCO: -2.35% Sector: +257.70% -260.06%
Avg MFE
UCO: +2.09% Sector: +1.89% +0.20%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UCO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-13 09:25:38 $27.29 +0.11% -0.15% +0.59% +0.77% +1.69% +1.83% -0.26% -0.15% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:53 $28.01 -0.04% -0.07% -0.21% -0.57% +1.04% +1.11% -0.71% -0.14% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:25:51 $26.78 +0.37% +2.02% +4.48% +5.79% +5.19% +6.35% +0.04% +0.16% WIN
2025-01-29 09:26:42 $28.0 +0.07% +0.29% +0.39% +0.64% -0.14% +1.43% -0.21% -0.14% WIN
2025-01-28 09:26:06 $28.71 -0.59% -0.87% -1.15% -1.25% -1.08% - - -0.21% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:27:44 $30.72 +0.52% -0.91% -0.88% -1.56% -1.92% +0.68% -2.34% -2.34% WIN
2024-12-26 09:26:38 $26.75 -0.07% -0.30% -0.52% -1.16% -2.47% +0.11% -0.26% -0.07% LOSS
2024-12-23 09:26:18 $25.89 -0.12% -0.18% -0.50% -1.04% +0.50% +0.50% -1.74% +0.04% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:50 $25.49 -0.44% -0.71% -0.43% +0.71% +1.96% +2.55% -0.82% -0.08% LOSS
2024-12-11 09:26:13 $26.12 -0.15% -0.40% -0.13% -0.08% +1.11% +1.84% -0.92% +0.04% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:26:30 $25.42 -0.04% +0.24% +0.43% +1.51% -0.39% +1.68% -0.23% -0.08% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:27:05 $24.89 -0.61% -0.96% -0.86% -1.31% -0.56% +0.47% -1.53% - LOSS
2024-12-05 09:27:03 $25.59 +0.43% +0.16% +0.81% -0.08% -0.94% +0.81% -0.20% +0.31% WIN
2024-12-03 09:26:55 $25.9 -0.39% -0.35% -0.39% +0.58% +1.70% +2.47% -0.81% +0.08% LOSS
2024-11-29 09:25:34 $25.86 +0.61% +0.46% +0.73% +0.70% -1.24% +1.24% +0.19% +0.19% WIN
2024-11-25 09:27:11 $26.15 +0.76% +1.19% +0.11% -0.73% -1.30% +1.38% +0.19% +0.38% WIN
2024-11-18 09:29:47 $25.36 +1.26% +0.47% +0.71% +1.72% +2.96% +3.33% -0.04% - WIN
2024-11-14 09:28:20 $26.04 -0.46% -0.61% -0.27% -0.77% -2.27% -0.08% -0.19% -0.15% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:26:42 $25.01 -0.83% -1.14% -1.48% -0.16% +0.76% +2.48% -2.00% -0.04% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:26:15 $25.95 +0.08% -0.27% -0.46% -0.89% -2.74% +0.19% +0.00% +0.19% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UCO Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.7% win rate and -0.06% average gain, UCO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider UCO for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze UCO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UCO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UCO historically offers an average upside of +2.09% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UCO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.7%, UCO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests UCO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UCO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.06%). This suggests UCO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.