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ALUR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-04-05 → 2025-01-27

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 02, 2023 🔗 www.allurion.com
💰 Market Cap: $16.5M 👥 Employees: 137
Allurion Technologies Inc is a medical device company that focuses on creating a weight loss platform to treat overweight patients. Its platform, the Allurion Program, features the world's first and only swallowable, procedure-less intragastric balloon for weight loss and offers access to AI-powered remote patient monitoring tools, a proprietary behavior change program, secure messaging, and video telehealth that are delivered by the Allurion VCS. Its proprietary intragastric balloon, the Allurion Balloon, is in the form of a swallowed capsule that is administered to patients under the guidance of a healthcare provider without surgery, endoscopy, or anesthesia.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
42.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+946.66%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -7.97%
Avg Winner: +3.81%
Avg Loser: -12.68%
Best: +4.62%
Worst: -39.59%
Trades: 2/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -5.75%
Avg Winner: +2.50%
Avg Loser: -9.88%
Best: +3.72%
Worst: -13.85%
Trades: 2/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 14.3%
Avg Gain: -11.60%
Avg Winner: +0.35%
Avg Loser: -13.59%
Best: +0.35%
Worst: -34.46%
Trades: 1/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 14.3%
Avg Gain: -13.69%
Avg Winner: +3.15%
Avg Loser: -16.50%
Best: +3.15%
Worst: -32.89%
Trades: 1/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +946.66%
Avg Winner: +2237.79%
Avg Loser: -21.69%
Best: +2434.20%
Worst: -47.56%
Trades: 3/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.89%
Best MFE: +8.14%
Avg Time to MFE: 3 min

On average, ALUR alerts reach +2.89% profit potential within 3 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -7.85%
Worst MAE: -33.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 7.85%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.37:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, ALUR typically reaches +2.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +1.13%
Best Gap +4.60%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How ALUR compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ALUR: -2.70% Sector: -0.34% -2.36%
EOD Gain
ALUR: +1112.36% Sector: +38960.46% -37848.10%
Avg MFE
ALUR: +3.13% Sector: +8.67% -5.54%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ALUR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-27 09:25:35 $7.01 +3.00% +1.28% +0.35% -1.57% -2.28% +5.56% -13.55% +3.28% WIN
2025-01-24 09:29:58 $16.57 -39.59% - -34.46% -32.89% -47.56% +1.45% -33.62% +1.33% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:29:49 $0.4 -6.72% -11.25% -13.25% -13.19% +2186.88% +3.00% -2.50% - LOSS
2024-08-28 09:25:22 $0.62 +4.62% +3.72% -1.83% +3.15% +2434.20% +8.14% - +4.60% WIN
2024-06-28 09:28:48 $1.2 -0.83% -7.50% -7.51% -18.33% -16.87% +0.83% -0.83% - LOSS
2024-06-21 09:29:48 $2.6 -7.69% -13.85% -14.62% -20.00% +2092.31% -0.38% -3.46% -2.31% LOSS
2024-04-05 09:29:58 $3.04 -8.55% -6.91% -9.87% -13.00% -20.07% +1.64% -0.99% +0.99% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 42.9% Baseline on ALUR

The 42.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ALUR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ALUR Strategy →

Why Analyze ALUR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ALUR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ALUR historically offers an average upside of +2.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ALUR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.9%, ALUR shows choppy price action, requiring strict filters or quick profit-taking.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ALUR performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +946.66%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.