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GUTS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-03-12 → 2025-01-31

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Fractyl Health, Inc. Common Stock SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS (SIC 3841)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 02, 2024 🔗 www.fractyl.com
💰 Market Cap: $320.5M 👥 Employees: 109
Fractyl Health Inc is a metabolic therapeutics company focused on pioneering new approaches to the treatment of metabolic diseases, including type 2 diabetes and obesity. The company focuses on transforming metabolic disease treatment from chronic symptomatic management to durable disease modifying therapies that target the organ level root causes of T2D and obesity.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
20.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-3.12%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+6.82%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -3.12%
Avg Winner: +4.75%
Avg Loser: -5.09%
Best: +4.75%
Worst: -8.39%
Trades: 1/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -3.17%
Avg Winner: +11.02%
Avg Loser: -6.71%
Best: +11.02%
Worst: -13.58%
Trades: 1/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -5.33%
Avg Winner: +11.53%
Avg Loser: -9.54%
Best: +11.53%
Worst: -14.57%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -8.14%
Avg Winner: +8.73%
Avg Loser: -12.35%
Best: +8.73%
Worst: -20.64%
Trades: 1/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -2.36%
Avg Winner: +26.27%
Avg Loser: -9.51%
Best: +26.27%
Worst: -21.52%
Trades: 1/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.82%
Best MFE: +31.19%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, GUTS alerts reach +6.82% profit potential within 122 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.77%
Worst MAE: -11.55%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.77%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.43:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, GUTS typically reaches +6.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -2.03%
Best Gap -0.48%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How GUTS compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GUTS: -3.12% Sector: -0.34% -2.78%
EOD Gain
GUTS: -2.36% Sector: +38960.46% -38962.82%
Avg MFE
GUTS: +6.82% Sector: +8.67% -1.85%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GUTS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-31 09:25:14 $1.89 -1.59% -2.91% -4.50% -4.76% -2.65% +2.64% -5.56% -4.23% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:29:23 $2.1 -8.04% -5.71% -10.48% -13.30% -7.14% - -11.55% -0.48% LOSS
2024-07-30 09:25:11 $4.3 -2.33% -4.65% -8.63% -10.70% -6.74% -0.19% -1.16% -3.02% LOSS
2024-04-01 09:26:56 $5.9 +4.75% +11.02% +11.53% +8.73% +26.27% +31.19% -3.05% -1.86% WIN
2024-03-12 09:27:35 $9.06 -8.39% -13.58% -14.57% -20.64% -21.52% +0.44% -2.54% -0.55% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ GUTS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 20.0% win rate and -3.12% average gain, GUTS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider GUTS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze GUTS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GUTS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GUTS historically offers an average upside of +6.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GUTS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 20.0%, GUTS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests GUTS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: GUTS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -3.12%). This suggests GUTS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.