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NEPH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-16 → 2022-05-17

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 21, 2004 🔗 www.nephros.com
💰 Market Cap: $49.7M 👥 Employees: 31
Nephros Inc is a commercial-stage company that develops and sells high-performance water solutions to the medical and commercial markets. In medical markets, it sells water filtration products and waterborne pathogen detection products. In commercial markets, the company manufactures and sells water filters that improve the taste and odor of water and reduce biofilm, bacteria, and scale build-up in downstream equipment. The company's subsidiary is engaged in the development of its second-generation hemodiafiltration system and other products focused on improving therapies for patients with renal disease. The company generates almost all of its revenue from product sales and a small amount from royalty revenue and other revenues.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+1.80%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+8.76%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +1.80%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +2.73%
Worst: +0.88%
Trades: 2/0

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +2.50%
Avg Winner: +2.50%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +4.55%
Worst: +0.44%
Trades: 2/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.41%
Avg Winner: +5.31%
Avg Loser: -10.13%
Best: +5.31%
Worst: -10.13%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +8.18%
Avg Winner: +8.18%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +8.18%
Worst: +8.18%
Trades: 1/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -4.80%
Avg Winner: +3.18%
Avg Loser: -12.78%
Best: +3.18%
Worst: -12.78%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.76%
Best MFE: +10.91%
Avg Time to MFE: 32 min

On average, NEPH alerts reach +8.76% profit potential within 32 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.44%
Worst MAE: -0.88%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

19.88:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 19.88x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, NEPH typically reaches +8.76% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.22%
Best Gap +0.44%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How NEPH compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NEPH: +2.73% Sector: -0.34% +3.07%
EOD Gain
NEPH: +3.18% Sector: +38960.46% -38957.28%
Avg MFE
NEPH: +10.91% Sector: +8.67% +2.24%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NEPH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-05-17 09:25:00 $2.27 +0.88% +0.44% -10.13% - -12.78% +6.61% -0.88% +0.44% WIN
2022-05-16 09:25:00 $2.2 +2.73% +4.55% +5.31% +8.18% +3.18% +10.91% - - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on NEPH

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NEPH's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NEPH Strategy →

Why Analyze NEPH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NEPH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NEPH historically offers an average upside of +8.76% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NEPH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, NEPH shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NEPH performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.80%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.