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NXGL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-12 → 2023-05-26

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 22, 2021 🔗 www.nexgel.com
💰 Market Cap: $13.6M 👥 Employees: 19
NexGel Inc manufactures high water content, electron beam cross-linked, aqueous polymer hydrogels, or gels, used for wound care, medical diagnostics, transdermal drug delivery, and cosmetics. The company specializes in custom gels by capitalizing on proprietary manufacturing technologies. The gels and consumer products are manufactured using proprietary and non-proprietary mixing, coating and cross-linking technologies.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.40%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+8.49%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +3.76%
Avg Loser: -4.55%
Best: +5.70%
Worst: -6.53%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.79%
Avg Winner: +2.40%
Avg Loser: -3.19%
Best: +2.40%
Worst: -4.98%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.43%
Avg Winner: +2.04%
Avg Loser: -3.92%
Best: +2.04%
Worst: -6.88%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.18%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.18%
Best: -1.02%
Worst: -7.21%
Trades: 0/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.49%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.49%
Best: -1.50%
Worst: -10.86%
Trades: 0/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.49%
Best MFE: +13.06%
Avg Time to MFE: 94 min

On average, NXGL alerts reach +8.49% profit potential within 94 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.14%
Worst MAE: -10.20%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.14%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.65:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, NXGL typically reaches +8.49% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -2.10%
Best Gap +4.20%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How NXGL compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NXGL: -0.40% Sector: -0.34% -0.05%
EOD Gain
NXGL: -5.49% Sector: +38960.46% -38965.96%
Avg MFE
NXGL: +8.49% Sector: +8.67% -0.17%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NXGL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-05-26 09:27:00 $2.45 -6.53% -2.04% +2.04% -1.71% -6.53% +13.06% -10.20% -6.53% LOSS
2022-03-22 09:25:00 $2.21 +1.81% -4.98% -6.88% -6.79% -10.86% +4.52% -0.45% -0.45% WIN
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $1.95 -2.56% -2.56% -1.56% -1.02% -3.08% +7.69% -8.72% -5.64% LOSS
2022-01-12 09:25:00 $3.33 +5.70% +2.40% -3.30% -7.21% -1.50% +8.71% -1.20% +4.20% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NXGL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.40% average gain, NXGL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NXGL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NXGL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NXGL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NXGL historically offers an average upside of +8.49% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NXGL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, NXGL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NXGL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NXGL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.40%). This suggests NXGL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.