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OBIO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-27 → 2024-07-11

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. Ordinary Shares SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS (SIC 3841)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 27, 2023 🔗 www.orchestrabiomed.com
💰 Market Cap: $228.1M 👥 Employees: 70
Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc is a biomedical innovation company accelerating high-impact technologies to patients through risk-reward sharing partnerships. Its partnership-enabled business model focuses on forging strategic collaborations with medical device companies to drive the commercialization of the products it develops. The company's flagship product candidates include BackBeat Cardiac Neuromodulation Therapy (CNT) for the treatment of hypertension and Virtue Sirolimus AngioInfusionBalloon (SAB) for the treatment of atherosclerotic artery disease.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-6.92%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.67%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -6.92%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -6.92%
Best: -3.85%
Worst: -9.99%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -16.20%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -16.20%
Best: -3.87%
Worst: -28.53%
Trades: 0/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -18.23%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -18.23%
Best: -4.99%
Worst: -31.46%
Trades: 0/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -18.15%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -18.15%
Best: -5.78%
Worst: -30.52%
Trades: 0/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.50%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.50%
Best: -3.97%
Worst: -5.04%
Trades: 0/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.67%
Best MFE: +2.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 99 min

On average, OBIO alerts reach +0.67% profit potential within 99 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.66%
Worst MAE: -6.02%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.66%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.14:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, OBIO typically reaches +0.67% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -2.99%
Best Gap -2.97%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How OBIO compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OBIO: -6.92% Sector: -0.34% -6.58%
EOD Gain
OBIO: -4.50% Sector: +38960.46% -38964.97%
Avg MFE
OBIO: +0.67% Sector: +8.67% -8.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OBIO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-07-11 09:26:52 $8.31 -3.85% -3.87% -4.99% -5.78% -3.97% -1.32% -6.02% -3.01% LOSS
2023-01-27 09:29:00 $12.11 -9.99% -28.53% -31.46% -30.52% -5.04% +2.65% -3.30% -2.97% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ OBIO Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -6.92% average gain, OBIO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider OBIO for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze OBIO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OBIO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OBIO historically offers an average upside of +0.67% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OBIO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, OBIO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests OBIO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: OBIO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -6.92%). This suggests OBIO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.