$BFLY seeking alpha Jun 18, 2026

$BFLY +47.37% — what the base rate says

The Boss FILTRIX Market Desk

Butterfly Network ($BFLY) is trading up 47% on absolutely zero news. A classic Thursday afternoon mystery pump on a micro-cap name.

If you are tempted to chase the high here, look at the base rates first.

Historically, when a stock gaps up 30% or more without a news catalyst, it fades to close red 65% of the time across nearly 2,900 historical instances. The median intraday return for this setup is a negative 6.79%.

The odds say this ends the week lower. We will check the receipts tomorrow.

What the data showed

$BFLY +47.37% Butterfly Network, Inc. · closed red 65% · green 34% (n=2,881) mcap $1.5B · float 167M shares · sector: X-RAY APPARATUS & TUBES & RELATED IRRADIATION APPARATUS
$SWBI +16.31% Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. · closed red 52% · green 48% (n=337) mcap $638M · float 43M shares · sector: ORDNANCE & ACCESSORIES, (NO VEHICLES/GUIDED MISSILES)
$INTC +10.61% Intel Corporation · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $642.6B · float 4.0B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$MTN +10.47% Vail Resorts, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $4.8B · float 40M shares · sector: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION
$RBLX +7.89% Roblox Corporation mcap $32.7B · float 619M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$ENPH +7.31% Enphase Energy, Inc. mcap $6.9B · float 128M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$BBBY +6.98% Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. mcap $451M · float 73M shares · sector: RETAIL-CATALOG & MAIL-ORDER HOUSES
$DXF +6.45% Eason Technology Limited mcap $1M · float 2M shares
$SOXX +6.38% iShares Semiconductor ETF
$SMH +5.56% VanEck Semiconductor ETF
$YYGH -38.32% YY Group Holding Limited · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=641) mcap $5M · float 6M shares
$ACN -18.47% Accenture plc · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $101.5B · float 612M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
$NFE -12.59% New Fortress Energy Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $140M · float 191M shares · sector: NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION
$KR -8.22% The Kroger Co. mcap $39.5B · float 607M shares · sector: RETAIL-GROCERY STORES
$ILLR -6.85% Triller Group Inc. mcap $32M · float 145M shares · sector: INVESTMENT ADVICE
$SPCX -6.14% Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
$CRCL -4.38% Circle Internet Group, Inc. mcap $20.7B · float 185M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES
$ALB -4.16% Albemarle Corporation mcap $19.9B · float 118M shares · sector: PLASTIC MATERIALS, SYNTH RESINS & NONVULCAN ELASTOMERS
$PFE -2.49% Pfizer Inc. mcap $148.2B · float 5.7B shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$RIO -2.15% Rio Tinto Group mcap $172.0B · float 1.3B shares · sector: Metal Mining

Don't let social media hype dictate your risk. Run the historical numbers on FILTRIX.net to see how often these unconfirmed rumor gaps actually hold up before you take the bait. Discipline > FOMO

Find Your Edge on FILTRIX →