Latest signal:
SMH Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 139 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-21 → 2025-02-03
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, SMH alerts reach +1.30% profit potential within 140 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.65%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.01x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 139 alerts, SMH typically reaches +1.30% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical SMH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | 09:26:34 | $235.89 | -0.06% | +0.14% | +0.19% | +1.41% | +1.23% | +2.44% | -0.33% | +0.03% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-29 | 09:27:56 | $242.95 | -1.00% | -1.02% | -0.60% | -1.23% | -1.41% | -0.20% | -1.23% | -0.22% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-28 | 09:29:47 | $238.07 | -1.66% | -1.92% | -1.15% | -0.50% | +1.00% | +1.24% | -2.44% | -0.08% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-27 | 09:29:55 | $242.48 | +0.47% | +0.38% | +0.42% | -0.14% | -2.75% | +1.07% | -0.60% | - | WIN |
| 2025-01-24 | 09:29:19 | $267.78 | -0.86% | -1.25% | -0.75% | -1.26% | -2.33% | -0.13% | -0.29% | -0.14% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-16 | 09:26:49 | $256.62 | -0.34% | -0.21% | -0.70% | -0.53% | -1.69% | +0.23% | -0.29% | +0.19% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-13 | 09:27:38 | $240.72 | +0.53% | +0.68% | +1.11% | +0.54% | +1.63% | +1.75% | -0.04% | +0.14% | WIN |
| 2025-01-06 | 09:27:58 | $258.38 | +0.81% | +1.04% | +1.34% | +1.85% | +0.72% | +1.90% | -0.24% | +0.11% | WIN |
| 2024-12-19 | 09:27:13 | $243.7 | -0.68% | -0.55% | -0.92% | -1.46% | -1.98% | -0.18% | -0.49% | -0.29% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-13 | 09:25:59 | $249.3 | +0.19% | +0.11% | +0.77% | +0.05% | +0.08% | +0.93% | -0.18% | +0.09% | WIN |
| 2024-11-26 | 09:29:45 | $245.67 | -0.13% | -0.47% | -1.06% | -1.29% | -1.73% | +0.18% | -0.08% | +0.06% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-21 | 09:26:09 | $245.65 | +0.94% | -0.79% | -0.83% | -1.73% | +0.18% | +1.03% | -0.11% | -0.05% | WIN |
| 2024-11-18 | 09:25:43 | $239.0 | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.61% | +0.65% | +1.06% | +1.33% | -0.67% | +0.01% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-12 | 09:28:47 | $253.0 | -0.43% | -0.32% | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.45% | +0.23% | -0.50% | +0.04% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-06 | 09:26:12 | $251.0 | +0.57% | +1.06% | -0.10% | +0.51% | +1.52% | +1.99% | -0.31% | +0.51% | WIN |
| 2024-11-01 | 09:25:08 | $243.9 | +0.06% | +0.39% | +0.91% | +1.09% | +0.35% | +1.39% | -0.23% | +0.12% | WIN |
| 2024-10-30 | 09:26:02 | $251.38 | +0.05% | -0.36% | +0.16% | +0.34% | -0.28% | +0.64% | -0.77% | +0.14% | WIN |
| 2024-10-17 | 09:26:35 | $255.75 | -0.47% | -0.67% | -0.40% | -0.35% | -1.63% | +0.16% | -1.46% | -0.22% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-16 | 09:28:02 | $249.69 | -0.54% | -1.01% | -1.43% | -0.27% | -0.95% | +0.06% | -0.35% | +0.06% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-03 | 09:25:47 | $241.68 | +0.16% | +1.10% | +1.56% | +1.11% | +1.19% | +2.26% | -0.14% | -0.05% | WIN |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ SMH Shows Negative Expectancy
With 48.2% win rate and -0.03% average gain, SMH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SMH for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze SMH with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMH historically offers an average upside of +1.30% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 SMH Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 48.2%, SMH shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SMH may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: SMH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.03%). This suggests SMH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.