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$THC +17.17% — what the base rate says

$THC +17.17% — what the base rate says

Saturday is for the ledger, not the leverage. Before we look at the weekly close, we keep our receipts: our Friday calls on $OMH and $ADVB both delivered 18% drops from open, booking two clean wins for the data. Now, the weekend study begins.

Amateurs are already looking for the next $THC after its 17.17% climb on Q2 earnings. Chaser psychology tells them to buy the breakout. But we don't trade on hope. The historical base rate across 337 instances of earnings gap-ups over 15% tells a different story: the stock closes red 52% of the time. It is a coin flip weighted against the late arrivals.

What is your go-to filter to prevent weekend FOMO from hijacking your Monday execution?

What the data showed

  • $THC +17.17% Tenet Healthcare Corporation · closed red 52% · green 48% (n=337) mcap $16.8B · float 87M shares · sector: SERVICES-GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL HOSPITALS, NEC
  • $LBTYB +8.04% Liberty Global Ltd. mcap $4.0B · float 268,540 shares · sector: CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
  • $BX +4.34% Blackstone Inc. mcap $150.0B · float 734M shares · sector: INVESTMENT ADVICE
  • $OVV +4.09% Ovintiv Inc. mcap $17.0B · float 256M shares · sector: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
  • $AAPL +3.77% Apple Inc. mcap $4786.5B · float 14.7B shares · sector: ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS
  • $CRM +3.72% Salesforce, Inc. mcap $133.5B · float 792M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $KKR +3.53% KKR & Co. Inc. mcap $85.8B · float 685M shares · sector: INVESTMENT ADVICE
  • $ABNB +2.57% Airbnb, Inc. mcap $83.1B · float 406M shares · sector: SERVICES-TO DWELLINGS & OTHER BUILDINGS
  • $GD +2.02% General Dynamics Corporation mcap $100.9B · float 269M shares · sector: SHIP & BOAT BUILDING & REPAIRING
  • $PECO +1.99% Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. mcap $5.5B · float 122M shares · sector: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS
  • $MU -8.02% Micron Technology, Inc. mcap $1083.6B · float 1.1B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $LBTYA -5.44% Liberty Global Ltd. mcap $3.5B · float 168M shares · sector: CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
  • $SBFG -3.94% SB Financial Group, Inc.
  • $PSKY -3.65% Paramount Skydance Corporation mcap $9.8B · float 847M shares · sector: TELEVISION BROADCASTING STATIONS
  • $NIO -3.02% NIO Inc. mcap $15.2B · float 2.3B shares
  • $MDXH -2.89% MDxHealth SA mcap $102M · float 37M shares
  • $MCHP -2.82% Microchip Technology Incorporated mcap $46.2B · float 530M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $USO -2.01% United States Oil Fund LP ETF float 16M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $META -1.98% Meta Platforms, Inc. mcap $1592.0B · float 2.2B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $SRFM -1.76% Surf Air Mobility Inc. mcap $90M · float 95M shares · sector: AIR TRANSPORTATION, NONSCHEDULED

Don't let weekend boredom trick you into planning a Monday chase. Run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net to see how often these earnings gaps actually hold. Discipline > FOMO

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