FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

ALGN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 36 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-21 → 2024-11-26

⚠️ Small sample size (36 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 26, 2001 🔗 www.aligntech.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.11B 👥 Employees: 21,065
Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Invisalign, its main product, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1998 and has since dominated, controlling over 90% of the market. Invisalign can treat roughly 90% of all malocclusion cases (misaligned teeth), and there are over 230,000 Invisalign-trained dentists and orthodontists. In 2022, Invisalign treated over 2 million cases, or roughly 10% of all orthodontic cases for the year, and it has treated over 14 million patients since its launch. Align also sells intraoral scanners under the brand iTero, which captures digital impressions of patients' teeth and illustrates treatment plans. Over 85% of Invisalign cases are submitted by digital scans, and iTero scans make up over half of these scans.
📊
36
Total Alerts
🎯
51.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.26%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.97%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -1.41%
Best: +2.48%
Worst: -3.53%
Trades: 18/17

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.48%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -1.57%
Best: +4.02%
Worst: -5.36%
Trades: 15/20

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.77%
Best: +3.45%
Worst: -5.54%
Trades: 14/21

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.6%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: +5.63%
Worst: -5.49%
Trades: 17/18

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.7%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +2.32%
Avg Loser: -2.46%
Best: +8.38%
Worst: -9.70%
Trades: 15/21

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.97%
Best MFE: +9.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 127 min

On average, ALGN alerts reach +1.97% profit potential within 127 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.20%
Worst MAE: -4.16%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.20%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.64:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 36 alerts, ALGN typically reaches +1.97% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 36
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.15%
Best Gap +1.75%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ORTHOPEDIC, PROSTHETIC & SURGICAL APPLIANCES & SUPPLIES

How ALGN compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ALGN: -0.26% Sector: -0.30% +0.03%
EOD Gain
ALGN: -0.20% Sector: +3169.91% -3170.11%
Avg MFE
ALGN: +1.96% Sector: +6.07% -4.12%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ALGN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-26 09:28:29 $237.0 -2.49% -2.99% -2.89% -3.60% -3.83% +0.20% -0.21% +0.11% LOSS
2024-10-31 09:27:02 $210.1 +0.50% -0.49% -0.57% -1.15% -2.41% +0.79% +0.26% +0.26% WIN
2024-09-26 09:27:12 $245.0 -0.15% +1.27% +2.55% +1.71% +1.82% +3.60% -0.49% +0.10% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $302.76 - - - - -9.70% +2.39% -0.98% +0.08% -
2023-12-29 09:27:00 $275.02 +0.68% +0.72% +0.57% +0.40% -0.37% +1.08% -0.74% +0.04% WIN
2023-12-19 09:25:00 $263.2 +0.71% +0.10% +0.46% +1.74% +1.94% +2.70% -0.21% -0.18% WIN
2023-11-29 09:25:00 $217.0 +0.04% +0.68% +1.38% +0.69% -0.24% +2.14% - - WIN
2023-11-10 09:29:00 $189.96 -1.39% -0.40% -0.23% -1.23% +1.14% +1.43% -2.08% -0.08% LOSS
2023-11-09 09:29:00 $194.93 -0.87% -1.37% -1.17% -1.79% -3.89% +0.02% -0.28% +0.02% LOSS
2023-11-07 09:27:00 $197.72 +0.60% -0.27% +0.20% +0.07% -0.10% +0.98% +0.18% +0.18% WIN
2023-10-26 09:28:00 $198.01 -1.96% -0.71% +0.63% -1.23% -3.76% +1.54% -3.00% -0.56% LOSS
2023-05-22 09:26:00 $291.46 -0.02% +0.56% +1.27% +1.93% +3.21% +4.43% -0.43% -0.14% LOSS
2023-02-02 09:26:00 $339.0 +2.48% +4.02% +3.02% +5.63% +6.16% +8.81% -1.89% -0.74% WIN
2023-01-17 09:27:00 $239.0 +0.79% +0.09% +1.14% +1.32% +2.95% +3.11% -0.47% -0.09% WIN
2023-01-12 09:25:00 $235.0 -0.35% -2.01% -2.53% +0.19% +0.25% +0.95% -2.83% -0.36% LOSS
2023-01-11 09:25:00 $232.98 +1.49% +0.65% +1.48% +1.05% +0.51% +2.22% +0.25% +0.44% WIN
2023-01-03 09:28:00 $214.9 +1.91% +1.17% -0.63% -1.54% -1.22% +2.15% -0.30% +0.26% WIN
2022-12-30 09:25:00 $207.17 +0.64% +0.44% +1.09% +1.88% +1.80% +2.00% -0.09% +0.45% WIN
2022-12-28 09:25:00 $204.87 -0.64% +0.39% +0.14% +0.04% -1.61% +0.81% -0.96% -0.03% LOSS
2022-12-27 09:25:00 $203.98 -1.26% -1.14% -0.41% +0.68% +0.30% +1.54% -1.87% -0.37% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ALGN Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.4% win rate, ALGN has -0.26% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ALGN profitable.

🔧 Fix ALGN Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze ALGN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ALGN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ALGN historically offers an average upside of +1.97% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ALGN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.4%, ALGN shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.41%) outweigh average wins (+0.82%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ALGN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.26%). This suggests ALGN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.