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KEY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 105 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-19 → 2025-01-21

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Feb 18, 1975 🔗 www.key.com
💰 Market Cap: $23.26B 👥 Employees: 17,406
With assets of around $185 billion, Ohio-based KeyCorp's bank footprint spans 16 states, but it is predominantly concentrated in its two largest markets: Ohio and New York. KeyCorp is primarily focused on serving middle-market commercial clients through a hybrid community/corporate bank model.
📊
105
Total Alerts
🎯
48.6%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.40%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 34.3%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -0.79%
Best: +3.07%
Worst: -3.35%
Trades: 36/66

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.38%
Best: +7.44%
Worst: -9.04%
Trades: 43/60

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +1.48%
Avg Loser: -1.74%
Best: +5.92%
Worst: -10.21%
Trades: 48/57

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.6%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +1.64%
Avg Loser: -2.34%
Best: +7.35%
Worst: -24.86%
Trades: 51/54

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +2.81%
Avg Loser: -2.86%
Best: +9.09%
Worst: -11.30%
Trades: 45/58

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.22%
Best MFE: +10.74%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, KEY alerts reach +2.22% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.38%
Worst MAE: -25.14%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.61:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 105 alerts, KEY typically reaches +2.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 105
Gap Up % 30.5%
Avg Gap -0.18%
Best Gap +1.33%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS

How KEY compares to 29 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
KEY: -0.20% Sector: -0.06% -0.14%
EOD Gain
KEY: -0.38% Sector: -0.08% -0.30%
Avg MFE
KEY: +2.22% Sector: +1.53% +0.69%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KEY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-21 09:28:15 $17.47 +1.66% +0.98% +1.89% +0.14% +0.97% +2.35% -0.97% -0.17% WIN
2024-11-06 09:27:11 $18.6 +1.61% +2.77% +2.66% +4.46% +7.37% +7.53% -0.59% -0.59% WIN
2024-10-17 09:26:01 $17.25 +0.03% +0.41% +0.58% +0.38% - +1.57% -2.03% -0.29% WIN
2024-09-11 09:26:00 $15.75 -0.25% -0.44% -1.14% -1.79% +1.08% +1.59% -2.25% - LOSS
2024-08-12 09:28:36 $17.04 -1.03% -2.52% -3.58% -2.96% -6.46% +0.35% -0.23% - LOSS
2024-07-09 09:25:50 $14.0 -0.14% +0.43% +0.36% +0.25% +2.07% +2.71% -0.50% -0.14% LOSS
2024-06-26 09:25:41 $13.65 -1.39% -1.03% -0.92% -1.17% -0.88% -0.62% -1.69% -1.61% LOSS
2024-04-18 09:28:17 $14.4 +1.60% +1.46% +0.56% -0.31% -0.14% +2.85% -2.08% -0.69% WIN
2024-04-10 09:27:34 $15.08 -0.93% -0.86% -0.56% +0.10% -1.59% +0.66% -0.80% +0.66% LOSS
2024-02-13 09:28:08 $13.75 -0.62% -0.33% -1.38% -1.56% -1.60% - - -0.36% LOSS
2023-12-20 09:28:00 $14.42 -0.21% - +0.03% +0.59% -2.36% +0.80% -1.11% -0.14% LOSS
2023-12-14 09:29:00 $14.43 +1.77% +2.70% +1.94% +1.18% +2.36% +3.12% -0.21% +0.62% WIN
2023-12-05 09:25:00 $13.27 -0.83% -1.28% -1.39% -2.26% -2.49% - -0.08% -0.15% LOSS
2023-12-04 09:29:00 $13.14 -0.49% +1.22% +0.23% +0.61% +2.28% +2.82% -1.07% -0.68% LOSS
2023-11-30 09:29:00 $12.53 -0.96% -0.64% +0.48% +1.04% -1.12% +1.04% -1.12% -0.24% LOSS
2023-11-17 09:27:00 $12.29 -0.04% -0.85% -0.98% -0.59% +0.24% +0.57% -1.71% +0.08% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:29:00 $11.94 +1.50% +1.93% +2.18% +2.22% +2.09% +2.60% +0.08% +0.34% WIN
2023-11-14 09:26:00 $11.37 +1.41% +2.42% +3.56% +4.66% +4.84% +5.89% -0.09% +0.09% WIN
2023-11-06 09:29:00 $11.71 -1.49% -2.56% -2.65% -3.93% -3.76% +0.17% +0.17% -0.17% LOSS
2023-11-03 09:27:00 $11.4 +0.79% +2.24% +1.58% +0.18% -0.09% +2.46% -0.18% -0.18% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KEY Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.6% win rate and -0.40% average gain, KEY alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider KEY for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze KEY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KEY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KEY historically offers an average upside of +2.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KEY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.6%, KEY shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests KEY may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KEY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.40%). This suggests KEY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.