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NRG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-25 → 2025-01-27

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

NRG Energy, Inc. ELECTRIC SERVICES (SIC 4911)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 20, 1993 🔗 www.nrg.com
💰 Market Cap: $28.61B 👥 Employees: 15,637
NRG Energy is one of the largest retail energy providers in the US, with 6 million customers. Vivint Smart Home, which NRG acquired in 2023, has 2 million home-services customers. NRG also is one of the largest US independent power producers, with 13 gigawatts of coal, gas, and oil power generation capacity primarily in Texas. The LS Power asset acquisition adds 13 GW of gas-fired power plants mostly in the Eastern US. NRG exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in December 2003.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.75%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.20%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +1.95%
Worst: -2.44%
Trades: 3/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -1.81%
Best: +2.01%
Worst: -3.24%
Trades: 3/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.75%
Avg Winner: +1.48%
Avg Loser: -2.99%
Best: +2.99%
Worst: -4.01%
Trades: 4/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.31%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -3.56%
Best: +1.90%
Worst: -5.06%
Trades: 4/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.41%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.76%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -4.42%
Trades: 0/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.92%
Best MFE: +3.92%
Avg Time to MFE: 59 min

On average, NRG alerts reach +1.92% profit potential within 59 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.43%
Worst MAE: -2.64%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.43%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.52:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.52x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, NRG typically reaches +1.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap +0.15%
Best Gap +3.02%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRIC SERVICES

How NRG compares to 23 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NRG: -0.23% Sector: -0.25% +0.03%
EOD Gain
NRG: -2.41% Sector: -0.39% -2.02%
Avg MFE
NRG: +1.92% Sector: +4.31% -2.39%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NRG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-27 09:26:04 $102.0 +1.19% -2.26% -3.86% -4.72% -4.42% +3.92% +0.98% +3.02% WIN
2024-09-06 09:29:46 $77.75 +1.95% +1.74% +1.27% +0.51% -1.59% +2.38% +1.02% +1.02% WIN
2023-05-15 09:25:00 $35.2 -2.44% -3.24% -4.01% -5.06% -4.03% +0.14% - -0.26% LOSS
2022-12-08 09:25:00 $33.18 -0.45% -0.45% +0.48% +1.90% -3.01% +2.50% -0.81% -0.54% LOSS
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $35.75 -0.56% +2.01% +2.99% +0.14% -2.99% +3.64% -1.09% -0.45% LOSS
2022-04-26 09:25:00 $37.27 +0.46% +0.91% +1.18% +1.21% - +1.96% +0.27% +0.46% WIN
2022-02-01 09:25:00 $39.93 -0.88% -1.93% -2.43% -2.75% -2.96% +0.15% -1.13% -0.73% LOSS
2022-01-25 09:25:00 $39.82 -1.08% -1.18% -1.66% -1.71% -0.28% +0.68% -2.64% -1.33% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NRG Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.75% average gain, NRG alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NRG for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NRG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NRG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NRG historically offers an average upside of +1.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NRG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, NRG shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NRG may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NRG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.75%). This suggests NRG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.