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ORA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-23 → 2025-01-31

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Ormat Technologies, Inc. ELECTRIC SERVICES (SIC 4911)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 11, 2004 🔗 www.ormat.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.50B 👥 Employees: 1,512
Ormat Technologies Inc is engaged in the geothermal and recovered energy power business. It is engaged in three business segments: Electricity Segment. where the company develops, builds, owns and operates geothermal, solar PV and recovered energy-based power plants in the United States and geothermal power plants in other countries and sell the electricity generated. Product Segment includes designing, manufacturing and selling equipment for geothermal and recovered energy-based electricity generation and providing services relating to the engineering, procurement and construction of geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants. Energy Storage Segment includes owning and operating grid-connected which provide capacity, energy and ancillary services directly to the electric grid.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.25%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.21%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +0.16%
Avg Loser: -0.57%
Best: +0.16%
Worst: -0.94%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -1.07%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -1.24%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -1.50%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.48%
Best: +0.89%
Worst: -0.54%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.33%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +0.57%
Worst: -1.43%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.21%
Best MFE: +1.72%
Avg Time to MFE: 176 min

On average, ORA alerts reach +1.21% profit potential within 176 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.19%
Worst MAE: -1.78%
Avg Time to MAE: 21 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.19%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.01:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, ORA typically reaches +1.21% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +0.27%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRIC SERVICES

How ORA compares to 23 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ORA: -0.39% Sector: -0.25% -0.14%
EOD Gain
ORA: -0.33% Sector: -0.39% +0.05%
Avg MFE
ORA: +1.21% Sector: +4.31% -3.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ORA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-31 09:29:59 $64.5 -0.94% -1.24% -1.50% -0.42% -0.54% +0.74% -1.78% -0.60% LOSS
2023-03-15 09:27:00 $82.44 -0.17% +0.56% -0.27% +0.13% +0.07% +0.78% -0.95% +0.25% LOSS
2022-11-17 09:25:00 $91.32 +0.16% +0.56% +0.56% +0.89% -1.43% +1.72% -0.57% +0.27% WIN
2022-06-23 09:25:00 $70.2 -0.61% -0.89% -0.16% -0.54% +0.57% +1.58% -1.45% -0.48% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ORA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.25% average gain, ORA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ORA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ORA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ORA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ORA historically offers an average upside of +1.21% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ORA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, ORA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ORA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ORA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.25%). This suggests ORA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.