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PNBK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-10-23 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Patriot National Bancorp Inc NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS (SIC 6021)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 31, 1994 🔗 www.bankpatriot.com
💰 Market Cap: $182.8M 👥 Employees: 129
Patriot National Bancorp Inc provides consumer and commercial banking services to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and municipalities in Fairfield and New Haven Counties in Connecticut and Westchester County, New York. Its products include checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, time certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. The Bank's lending portfolio is comprised of commercial mortgage and construction loans, commercial loans, home improvement loans, home equity lines of credit, and other personal loans. In addition, the Bank offers bank checks, money orders, automated teller machines, interactive teller machines, online and mobile banking, credit cards, and debit cards.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.49%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+9.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.33%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.33%
Best: -1.68%
Worst: -6.57%
Trades: 0/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -1.49%
Avg Winner: +4.53%
Avg Loser: -13.52%
Best: +8.06%
Worst: -13.52%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.51%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.51%
Best: -2.37%
Worst: -10.86%
Trades: 0/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.53%
Avg Winner: +6.10%
Avg Loser: -6.84%
Best: +6.10%
Worst: -12.74%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +10.33%
Avg Loser: -5.64%
Best: +10.33%
Worst: -7.58%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.84%
Best MFE: +15.02%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, PNBK alerts reach +9.84% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -7.33%
Worst MAE: -9.86%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 7.33%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.34:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, PNBK typically reaches +9.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -1.25%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS

How PNBK compares to 29 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PNBK: -4.33% Sector: -0.06% -4.27%
EOD Gain
PNBK: -0.31% Sector: -0.08% -0.24%
Avg MFE
PNBK: +9.84% Sector: +1.53% +8.30%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PNBK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:29:28 $2.13 -6.57% +1.01% -3.29% +6.10% +10.33% +15.02% -9.86% - LOSS
2025-02-10 09:25:08 $2.44 -1.68% -13.52% -10.86% -12.74% -3.69% +1.23% -7.38% -3.28% LOSS
2024-10-23 09:29:18 $2.11 -4.74% +8.06% -2.37% -0.95% -7.58% +13.27% -4.74% -0.47% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PNBK Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, PNBK has -1.49% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making PNBK profitable.

🔧 Fix PNBK Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze PNBK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PNBK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PNBK historically offers an average upside of +9.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PNBK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, PNBK shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-13.52%) outweigh average wins (+4.53%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PNBK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.49%). This suggests PNBK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.