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TLN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-07-31 → 2024-11-04

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Talen Energy Corporation Common Stock ELECTRIC SERVICES (SIC 4911)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 2023 🔗 www.talenenergy.com
💰 Market Cap: $16.74B 👥 Employees: 1,894
Talen Energy Corp is an independent power producer and energy infrastructure company. The company owns and operates approximately 10.7 gigawatts of power infrastructure in the United States. The group produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale U.S. power markets, including PJM and WECC, with its generation fleet located in the Mid-Atlantic and Montana.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+1.19%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+4.54%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.19%
Avg Winner: +2.60%
Avg Loser: -0.22%
Best: +2.60%
Worst: -0.22%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.41%
Avg Winner: +3.68%
Avg Loser: -2.86%
Best: +3.68%
Worst: -2.86%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.26%
Avg Winner: +0.07%
Avg Loser: -4.59%
Best: +0.07%
Worst: -4.59%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.66%
Avg Winner: +7.15%
Avg Loser: -3.83%
Best: +7.15%
Worst: -3.83%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.07%
Avg Winner: +6.25%
Avg Loser: -4.12%
Best: +6.25%
Worst: -4.12%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.54%
Best MFE: +8.35%
Avg Time to MFE: 183 min

On average, TLN alerts reach +4.54% profit potential within 183 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.39%
Worst MAE: -0.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 0 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.39%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

11.66:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 11.66x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, TLN typically reaches +4.54% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap +0.00%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRIC SERVICES

How TLN compares to 23 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TLN: +1.19% Sector: -0.25% +1.45%
EOD Gain
TLN: +1.07% Sector: -0.39% +1.45%
Avg MFE
TLN: +4.54% Sector: +4.31% +0.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TLN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-04 09:28:16 $160.0 +2.60% +3.68% +0.07% +7.15% +6.25% +8.35% -0.62% - WIN
2024-07-31 09:28:03 $130.0 -0.22% -2.86% -4.59% -3.83% -4.12% +0.73% -0.15% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on TLN

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TLN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TLN Strategy →

Why Analyze TLN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TLN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TLN historically offers an average upside of +4.54% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TLN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, TLN shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TLN performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.19%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.