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$SMCI +17.66% — what the base rate says

$SMCI +17.66% — what the base rate says

Roblox ($RBLX) slides -9.18% as its new age-verification system accidentally deleted 20 million daily active users, prompting the inevitable class-action lawsuits.

But before you rush to short the collapse on emotional headlines, the data reveals a different story. In 26 historical gap-down days of 5% or more, $RBLX has closed green 62% of the time, with a positive median intraday return of +1.69%.

Retail panic creates structural liquidity pockets that algorithmic market makers love to exploit. Process over outcome: the crowd sells the headline, while the data buys the statistical edge.

What the data showed

  • $SMCI +17.66% Super Micro Computer, Inc. · closed red 60% · green 39% (n=7,131) mcap $19.8B · float 516M shares · sector: ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS
  • $UNCY +15.47% Unicycive Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 60% · green 39% (n=7,131) mcap $188M · float 21M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $CRDO +11.07% Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $50.7B · float 165M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $INFQ +9.09% Infleqtion, Inc. mcap $3.0B · float 188M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
  • $CMBT +6.52% CMB.TECH NV mcap $4.3B · float 85M shares
  • $PRAX +6.50% Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. mcap $7.9B · float 28M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $SNDK +5.73% Sandisk Corporation mcap $323.5B · float 146M shares · sector: COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES
  • $ACHV +5.15% Achieve Life Sciences, Inc. mcap $498M · float 50M shares · sector: IN VITRO & IN VIVO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES
  • $MU +4.63% Micron Technology, Inc. mcap $1278.8B · float 1.1B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $SPCX -10.73% Space Exploration Technologies Corp. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903)
  • $AVAV -10.36% AeroVironment, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $8.6B · float 37M shares · sector: AIRCRAFT
  • $RBLX -9.18% Roblox Corporation mcap $36.9B · float 619M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $MRNA -6.74% Moderna, Inc. mcap $25.4B · float 363M shares · sector: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
  • $LULU -6.05% lululemon athletica inc. mcap $12.7B · float 100M shares · sector: APPAREL & OTHER FINISHD PRODS OF FABRICS & SIMILAR MATL
  • $GOOG -5.39% Alphabet Inc. mcap $4484.0B · float 5.1B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $GOOGL -5.34% Alphabet Inc. mcap $4490.9B · float 5.8B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $NFLX -5.25% Netflix, Inc. mcap $325.8B · float 4.2B shares · sector: SERVICES-VIDEO TAPE RENTAL
  • $CLF -3.14% Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. mcap $7.0B · float 564M shares · sector: METAL MINING
  • $KHC -3.00% The Kraft Heinz Company mcap $27.1B · float 1.2B shares · sector: CANNED, FROZEN & PRESERVD FRUIT, VEG & FOOD SPECIALTIES

Don't trade headline panic or twenty-eight-trillion-dollar TAM slide decks. Check the historical gap-up and gap-down base rates on FILTRIX.net before you place your next order. Discipline > FOMO

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